--- title: "Fear case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Fear ($87.55) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 18 items with odds, observed 102.47% over 82 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fear rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Fear](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fear) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Fear A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fear?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fear?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fear) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fear?window=all) Price · $87.55 · 125 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $79.59 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 102.47% · 82 openings, odds method Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 42 openings · below min 30 days · 82 openings · below min since tracking started · 82 openings · below min 78.0% 107.8% 137.5% **Small sample.** 82 openings and 12.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fear?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fear?window=7d) | 42 | 107.85% ±29.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fear) | 82 | 102.47% ±20.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fear?window=all) | 82 | 102.47% ±20.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 82 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 12.0% | $286 409 coins | 43.2% | 13 | 9.8 | 1.32× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 667 | $186 265 coins | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $178 254 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $174 249 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $167 238 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 83 | $152 217 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $125 178 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $108 154 coins | 2.7% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.44× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $98.70 141 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 15.0% | $77.70 111 coins | 14.6% | 15 | 12.3 | 1.22× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 118 | $70.00 100 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $69.78 99.69 coins | 0.9% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $66.84 95.48 coins | 2.5% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) | 18.0% | $65.32 93.31 coins | 14.8% | 12 | 14.8 | 0.81× | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $51.58 73.69 coins | 3.2% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.98× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $40.21 57.44 coins | 4.5% | 8 | 7.4 | 1.08× | | [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $21.01 30.01 coins | 1.8% | 3 | 5.7 | 0.52× | | [Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-copper-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 23.1% | $10.79 15.42 coins | 3.1% | 18 | 18.9 | 0.95× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=fear) [AWP | Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-well-worn) Hidden $87.55 125 coins $21.01 30.01 coins 0.24x 2026-11-10 01:05 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) Hidden $87.55 125 coins $77.70 111 coins 0.89x 2026-11-10 01:05 UTC [Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-copper-galaxy-minimal-wear) Hidden $87.55 125 coins $10.79 15.42 coins 0.12x 2026-11-10 01:05 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) Hidden $87.55 125 coins $77.70 111 coins 0.89x 2026-11-10 01:05 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) Hidden $87.55 125 coins $40.21 57.44 coins 0.46x 2026-11-10 01:05 UTC [Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-copper-galaxy-minimal-wear) [Anh Trithong](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Anh%20Trithong) $87.55 125 coins $10.79 15.42 coins 0.12x 2026-11-10 01:05 UTC [SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) Hidden $87.55 125 coins $286 409 coins 3.27x 2026-11-10 01:03 UTC [Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-copper-galaxy-minimal-wear) Hidden $87.55 125 coins $10.79 15.42 coins 0.12x 2026-11-10 01:03 UTC [Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-copper-galaxy-minimal-wear) Hidden $87.55 125 coins $10.79 15.42 coins 0.12x 2026-11-10 01:03 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) Hidden $87.55 125 coins $77.70 111 coins 0.89x 2026-11-10 01:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $87.55 | 90.91% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $87.56 | 90.91% | 18 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $88.66 | 90.91% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 59.9% extraordinary 0.1% restricted 32.0% industrial 3.0% classified 5.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt