--- title: "Featherweight case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Featherweight ($4.41) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.86% from 14 items with odds, observed 92.08% over 22K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/featherweight rendered: 2026-11-11T19:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Featherweight](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/featherweight) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Featherweight A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/featherweight?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/featherweight?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/featherweight) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/featherweight?window=all) Price · $4.41 · 6.3 coins Advertised RTP · 90.86% · EV $4.01 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.08% · 22K openings, odds method Variance · 9.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.88% ±13.75 1,918 openings 7 days · 89.68% ±4.63 17.2K openings 30 days · 92.08% ±4.09 22K openings since tracking started · 92.08% ±4.09 22K openings 72.5% 87.0% 101.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/featherweight?window=24h) | 1,918 | 86.88% ±13.8 | −0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/featherweight?window=7d) | 17.2K | 89.68% ±4.63 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/featherweight) | 22K | 92.08% ±4.09 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/featherweight?window=all) | 22K | 92.08% ±4.09 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $72.10 103 coins | 54.0% | 683 | 661.4 | 1.03× | | [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $53.82 76.89 coins | 6.7% | 116 | 110.2 | 1.05× | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $49.99 71.42 coins | 12.5% | 212 | 220.5 | 0.96× | | [Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $7.74 11.06 coins | 9.7% | 1,059 | 1102.3 | 0.96× | | [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3.00 4.29 coins | 3.7% | 1,042 | 1102.3 | 0.95× | | [USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $2.99 4.27 coins | 4.4% | 1,304 | 1300.7 | 1.00× | | [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.95 2.79 coins | 1.5% | 675 | 661.4 | 1.02× | | [MAC-10 \| Strats (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-strats-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $1.22 1.75 coins | 2.4% | 1,809 | 1763.7 | 1.03× | | [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.09 1.55 coins | 1.4% | 1,131 | 1102.3 | 1.03× | | [P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $0.45 0.64 coins | 1.6% | 3,058 | 3086.4 | 0.99× | | [Sawed-Off \| Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.31 0.44 coins | 0.8% | 2,184 | 2204.6 | 0.99× | | [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.27 0.39 coins | 0.5% | 1,810 | 1763.7 | 1.03× | | [G3SG1 \| Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-factory-new) | 14.0% | $0.13 0.18 coins | 0.4% | 3,134 | 3086.4 | 1.02× | | [AUG \| Condemned (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-minimal-wear) | 17.6% | $0.10 0.14 coins | 0.4% | 3,829 | 3880.1 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=featherweight) [Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) Hidden $4.41 6.3 coins $0.31 0.44 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 19:50 UTC [P250 | Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.41 6.3 coins $0.45 0.64 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 19:50 UTC [PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-field-tested) [TheyCallMeDong](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/TheyCallMeDong) $4.41 6.3 coins $1.95 2.79 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 19:50 UTC [P250 | Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.41 6.3 coins $0.45 0.64 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 19:50 UTC [PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-field-tested) Hidden $4.41 6.3 coins $1.95 2.79 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 19:50 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hot Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.41 6.3 coins $7.74 11.06 coins 1.76x 2026-11-11 19:50 UTC [Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) Hidden $4.41 6.3 coins $0.31 0.44 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 19:33 UTC [G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-factory-new) Hidden $4.41 6.3 coins $0.13 0.18 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:33 UTC [MAC-10 | Strats (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-strats-factory-new) Hidden $4.41 6.3 coins $1.22 1.75 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 19:33 UTC [Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) Hidden $4.41 6.3 coins $0.31 0.44 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 19:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $4.41 | 90.86% | 14 | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $4.40 | 90.98% | 14 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.42 | 90.85% | 14 | | 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $4.38 | 90.87% | 14 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $4.38 | 90.89% | 14 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $4.40 | 90.94% | 14 | | 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $4.40 | 90.96% | 14 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.41 | 90.91% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.0% classified 0.5% industrial 48.6% mil spec 29.0% restricted 10.9% consumer 8.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.86 on average: an expected loss of $9.14 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt