---
title: "Feeling Lucky case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Feeling Lucky ($1.30) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.01% from 10 items with odds, observed 89.13% over 29.4K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/feeling-lucky
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:44Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Feeling Lucky](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/feeling-lucky)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Feeling Lucky

A case on CSGORoll (hot), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/feeling-lucky?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/feeling-lucky?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/feeling-lucky) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/feeling-lucky?window=all)

Price · $1.30 · 1.85 coins

Advertised RTP · 91.01% · EV $1.18 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.13% · 29.4K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 40.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 59.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.78% ±6.33 2,491 openings

7 days · 88.65% ±2.08 23.8K openings

30 days · 89.13% ±1.88 29.4K openings

since tracking started · 89.13% ±1.88 29.4K openings

85.0% 92.0% 99.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/feeling-lucky?window=24h) | 2,491 | 91.78% ±6.33 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/feeling-lucky?window=7d) | 23.8K | 88.65% ±2.08 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/feeling-lucky) | 29.4K | 89.13% ±1.88 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/feeling-lucky?window=all) | 29.4K | 89.13% ±1.88 | −1.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 29.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $68.73 98.18 coins | 0.6% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.02× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $54.58 77.97 coins | 0.5% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-urban-masked-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $48.87 69.82 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.34× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $48.46 69.23 coins | 0.4% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.02× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $44.24 63.2 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.34× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $42.73 61.05 coins | 0.7% | 5 | 5.9 | 0.85× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $40.89 58.41 coins | 0.7% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.68× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $35.09 50.13 coins | 1.2% | 4 | 11.8 | 0.34× |
| [MP5-SD \| Bamboo Garden (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-bamboo-garden-well-worn) | 40.0% | $2.79 3.99 coins | 94.8% | 11,772 | 11776.4 | 1.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-field-tested) | 59.9% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.4% | 17,646 | 17626.3 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Navaja Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.27 1.82 coins $74.90 107 coins 58.79x 2026-11-07 17:41 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.27 1.82 coins $74.90 107 coins 58.79x 2026-11-06 08:24 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.27 1.82 coins $74.90 107 coins 58.79x 2026-11-03 23:32 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=feeling-lucky)

[G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-field-tested) Hidden $1.30 1.85 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:39 UTC

[G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-field-tested) Hidden $1.30 1.85 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:39 UTC

[MP5-SD | Bamboo Garden (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-bamboo-garden-well-worn) Hidden $1.30 1.85 coins $2.79 3.99 coins 2.16x 2026-11-11 20:39 UTC

[G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-field-tested) [Manolaw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Manolaw) $1.30 1.85 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:39 UTC

[G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-field-tested) [Div](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Div) $1.30 1.85 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:38 UTC

[G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-field-tested) Hidden $1.30 1.85 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:38 UTC

[G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-field-tested) Hidden $1.30 1.85 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:38 UTC

[G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-field-tested) [MoNo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/MoNo) $1.30 1.85 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:30 UTC

[MP5-SD | Bamboo Garden (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-bamboo-garden-well-worn) Hidden $1.30 1.85 coins $2.79 3.99 coins 2.16x 2026-11-11 20:30 UTC

[G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-field-tested) Hidden $1.30 1.85 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:30 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.30 | 91.01% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.27 | 90.68% | 10 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% consumer 99.9% best hit $74.90 (58.79x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.01 on average: an expected loss of $8.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt