---
title: "Feral case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Feral ($85.38) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 24 items with odds, observed 90.08% over 419 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/feral
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:38Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Feral](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/feral)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Feral

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/feral?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/feral?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/feral) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/feral?window=all)

Price · $85.38 · 122 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $77.62 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.08% · 419 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 25 openings · below min

7 days · 88.99% ±12.09 365 openings

30 days · 90.08% ±11.27 419 openings

since tracking started · 90.08% ±11.27 419 openings

48.0% 95.8% 143.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/feral?window=24h) | 25 | 95.67% ±47.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/feral?window=7d) | 365 | 88.99% ±12.1 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/feral) | 419 | 90.08% ±11.3 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/feral?window=all) | 419 | 90.08% ±11.3 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 421 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,305 6,150 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $1,177 1,682 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $776 1,108 coins | 0.5% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $767 1,095 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $592 846 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $557 796 coins | 3.6% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.95× |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $540 772 coins | 2.1% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $455 650 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $361 516 coins | 7.0% | 5 | 6.3 | 0.79× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $270 386 coins | 2.4% | 6 | 2.9 | 2.04× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 100 | $267 382 coins | 3.4% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.95× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $155 221 coins | 6.0% | 12 | 12.6 | 0.95× |
| [AUG \| Copperhead (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-copperhead-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $119 170 coins | 6.1% | 20 | 16.8 | 1.19× |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) | 16.6% | $108 154 coins | 23.0% | 67 | 69.7 | 0.96× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $103 147 coins | 3.0% | 10 | 9.7 | 1.03× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $95.20 136 coins | 1.5% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.95× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $80.50 115 coins | 1.9% | 7 | 7.6 | 0.92× |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $75.60 108 coins | 4.9% | 19 | 21.1 | 0.90× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $54.74 78.2 coins | 3.2% | 21 | 18.9 | 1.11× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $44.70 63.86 coins | 4.0% | 34 | 29.5 | 1.15× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 14.0% | $40.21 57.44 coins | 7.3% | 69 | 58.9 | 1.17× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-factory-new) | 14.0% | $39.71 56.73 coins | 7.2% | 56 | 58.9 | 0.95× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $26.82 38.32 coins | 2.1% | 14 | 25.3 | 0.55× |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-well-worn) | 16.0% | $22.94 32.77 coins | 4.7% | 67 | 67.4 | 0.99× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $85.04 121 coins $855 1,222 coins 10.06x 2026-11-08 04:08 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $85.38 122 coins $776 1,108 coins 9.08x 2026-11-09 11:19 UTC

[M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) Hidden $85.37 122 coins $540 772 coins 6.33x 2026-11-08 18:56 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $85.04 121 coins $525 750 coins 6.17x 2026-11-05 18:41 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $85.04 121 coins $525 750 coins 6.17x 2026-11-03 03:53 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=feral)

[★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-battle-scarred) Hidden $85.38 122 coins $75.60 108 coins 0.89x 2026-11-11 07:10 UTC

[AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $85.38 122 coins $361 516 coins 4.23x 2026-11-11 06:54 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-battle-scarred) Hidden $85.38 122 coins $103 147 coins 1.21x 2026-11-11 06:02 UTC

[MP9 | Hydra (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $85.38 122 coins $39.71 56.73 coins 0.47x 2026-11-11 03:13 UTC

[P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) [Jakymowsky](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jakymowsky) $85.38 122 coins $108 154 coins 1.26x 2026-11-10 22:01 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-minimal-wear) Hidden $85.38 122 coins $54.74 78.2 coins 0.64x 2026-11-10 21:44 UTC

[Galil AR | Cerberus (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-well-worn) Hidden $85.38 122 coins $22.94 32.77 coins 0.27x 2026-11-10 21:39 UTC

[Galil AR | Cerberus (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-well-worn) Hidden $85.38 122 coins $22.94 32.77 coins 0.27x 2026-11-10 21:37 UTC

[MP9 | Hydra (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $85.38 122 coins $39.71 56.73 coins 0.47x 2026-11-10 21:35 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) Hidden $85.38 122 coins $40.21 57.44 coins 0.47x 2026-11-10 21:32 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $85.38 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $85.79 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $85.04 | 90.91% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% extraordinary 22.8% covert 35.9% epic 0.2% mil spec 4.0% classified 21.0% restricted 16.0% best hit $855 (10.06x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt