---
title: "Fire Frenzy case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Fire Frenzy ($36.29) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 15 items with odds, observed 92.54% over 1,353 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fire-frenzy
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Fire Frenzy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fire-frenzy)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Fire Frenzy

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fire-frenzy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fire-frenzy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fire-frenzy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fire-frenzy?window=all)

Price · $36.29 · 51.84 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $32.99 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.54% · 1,353 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 63.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.44% ±24.44 108 openings

7 days · 92.29% ±7.53 1,152 openings

30 days · 92.54% ±6.95 1,353 openings

since tracking started · 92.54% ±6.95 1,353 openings

59.5% 84.5% 109.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fire-frenzy?window=24h) | 108 | 84.44% ±24.4 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fire-frenzy?window=7d) | 1,152 | 92.29% ±7.53 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fire-frenzy) | 1,353 | 92.54% ±6.95 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fire-frenzy?window=all) | 1,353 | 92.54% ±6.95 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,357 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $1,091 1,559 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $643 918 coins | 1.0% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $406 580 coins | 3.1% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.88× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $178 254 coins | 2.7% | 8 | 6.8 | 1.18× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 77 | $144 205 coins | 5.7% | 22 | 17.6 | 1.25× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $142 203 coins | 1.1% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.47× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-well-worn) | 11.0% | $104 148 coins | 34.5% | 131 | 149.3 | 0.88× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $98.70 141 coins | 9.0% | 43 | 40.7 | 1.06× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $68.73 98.18 coins | 8.3% | 59 | 54.3 | 1.09× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $56.33 80.47 coins | 8.5% | 72 | 67.9 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 10.8% | $40.04 57.2 coins | 13.1% | 156 | 146.6 | 1.06× |
| [Nova \| Antique (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-factory-new) | 12.0% | $9.97 14.24 coins | 3.6% | 168 | 162.8 | 1.03× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) | 14.8% | $9.60 13.72 coins | 4.3% | 196 | 201.3 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 18.0% | $4.36 6.23 coins | 2.4% | 233 | 244.3 | 0.95× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 19.0% | $3.82 5.45 coins | 2.2% | 259 | 257.8 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $36.95 52.79 coins $655 935 coins 17.71x 2026-11-08 11:57 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $36.95 52.79 coins $655 935 coins 17.71x 2026-11-05 12:42 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=fire-frenzy)

[CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $36.29 51.84 coins $3.82 5.45 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 20:07 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $36.29 51.84 coins $9.60 13.72 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 20:01 UTC

[Nova | Antique (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-factory-new) [Dab](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dab) $36.29 51.84 coins $9.97 14.24 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 20:00 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) [Dab](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dab) $36.29 51.84 coins $9.60 13.72 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 20:00 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $36.29 51.84 coins $178 254 coins 4.90x 2026-11-11 19:59 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [EJma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/EJma) $36.29 51.84 coins $3.82 5.45 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $36.29 51.84 coins $98.70 141 coins 2.72x 2026-11-11 19:02 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $36.29 51.84 coins $9.60 13.72 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $36.29 51.84 coins $9.60 13.72 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $36.29 51.84 coins $3.82 5.45 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $36.29 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $36.66 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $36.95 | 90.91% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 12.0% covert 29.6% extraordinary 1.6% mil spec 24.0% restricted 32.8% best hit $655 (17.71x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt