---
title: "Fireflies case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Fireflies ($4.08) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 21 items with odds, observed 90.64% over 22.1K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fireflies
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Fireflies](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fireflies)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Fireflies

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fireflies?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fireflies?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fireflies) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fireflies?window=all)

Price · $4.08 · 5.83 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $3.71 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.64% · 22.1K openings, odds method

Variance · 6.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 23 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.00% ±10.21 2,526 openings

7 days · 92.11% ±3.77 18K openings

30 days · 90.64% ±3.39 22.1K openings

since tracking started · 90.64% ±3.39 22.1K openings

79.0% 90.0% 101.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fireflies?window=24h) | 2,526 | 90.00% ±10.2 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fireflies?window=7d) | 18K | 92.11% ±3.77 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fireflies) | 22.1K | 90.64% ±3.39 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fireflies?window=all) | 22.1K | 90.64% ±3.39 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 100,000 | $629 898 coins | 0.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 156 | $98.70 141 coins | 17.0% | 138 | 141.5 | 0.97× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $66.79 95.42 coins | 3.6% | 46 | 44.2 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $62.49 89.27 coins | 0.2% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.81× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $59.89 85.56 coins | 1.6% | 19 | 22.1 | 0.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $51.58 73.69 coins | 4.2% | 67 | 66.3 | 1.01× |
| [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $45.34 64.77 coins | 6.1% | 105 | 110.6 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-rat-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $36.93 52.75 coins | 4.0% | 68 | 88.5 | 0.77× |
| [Sticker \| Ultraviolet Poison Frog (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ultraviolet-poison-frog-foil) | 1 in 182 | $27.60 39.43 coins | 4.1% | 123 | 121.6 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $24.22 34.6 coins | 5.2% | 184 | 176.9 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $22.79 32.56 coins | 5.5% | 229 | 199.0 | 1.15× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $13.29 18.98 coins | 7.2% | 428 | 442.3 | 0.97× |
| [UMP-45 \| Scorched (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $6.79 9.7 coins | 9.2% | 1,117 | 1105.8 | 1.01× |
| [Galil AR \| Shattered (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $6.69 9.55 coins | 7.2% | 928 | 884.6 | 1.05× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $5.74 8.2 coins | 4.6% | 664 | 663.5 | 1.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $4.69 6.7 coins | 10.2% | 1,696 | 1791.4 | 0.95× |
| [Charm \| Diamond Dog charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diamond-dog) | 1 in 67 | $4.33 6.18 coins | 1.7% | 307 | 331.7 | 0.93× |
| [Galil AR \| Shattered (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $3.26 4.66 coins | 6.2% | 1,547 | 1548.1 | 1.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.26 0.37 coins | 1.4% | 4,493 | 4423.2 | 1.02× |
| [Nova \| Caged Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-caged-steel-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.06 0.09 coins | 0.3% | 4,387 | 4423.2 | 0.99× |
| [Tec-9 \| VariCamo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-varicamo-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $0.04 0.06 coins | 0.3% | 5,565 | 5528.8 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $4.09 5.84 coins $629 898 coins 153.8x 2026-11-04 14:12 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=fireflies)

[Tec-9 | VariCamo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-varicamo-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.08 5.83 coins $0.04 0.06 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[Tec-9 | VariCamo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-varicamo-minimal-wear) [BiO-HaZarD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BiO-HaZarD) $4.08 5.83 coins $0.04 0.06 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[Nova | Caged Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-caged-steel-field-tested) [mellow111.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/mellow111.) $4.08 5.83 coins $0.06 0.09 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[Tec-9 | VariCamo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-varicamo-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.08 5.83 coins $0.04 0.06 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-field-tested) Hidden $4.08 5.83 coins $0.26 0.37 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[Tec-9 | VariCamo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-varicamo-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.08 5.83 coins $0.04 0.06 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[Charm | Diamond Dog charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diamond-dog) Hidden $4.08 5.83 coins $4.33 6.18 coins 1.06x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[Galil AR | Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.08 5.83 coins $4.69 6.7 coins 1.15x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[Galil AR | Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-minimal-wear) [Kas.I.Na](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kas.I.Na) $4.08 5.83 coins $4.69 6.7 coins 1.15x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[Nova | Caged Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-caged-steel-field-tested) Hidden $4.08 5.83 coins $0.06 0.09 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $4.08 | 90.92% | 21 |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $4.08 | 90.93% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.08 | 90.96% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4.12 | 90.84% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $4.10 | 90.86% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $4.09 | 90.97% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.10 | 90.88% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% covert 0.6% classified 1.4% rare 2.0% restricted 30.5% exotic 0.5% violet 0.9% consumer 5.0% Mil Spec 4.0% mil spec 10.0% industrial 45.0% best hit $629 (153.8x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt