--- title: "Firestarter case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Firestarter ($30.67) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 19 items with odds, observed 87.64% over 1,069 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/firestarter rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Firestarter](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/firestarter) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Firestarter A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/firestarter?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/firestarter?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/firestarter) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/firestarter?window=all) Price · $30.67 · 43.82 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $27.89 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.64% · 1,069 openings, odds method Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 82.44% ±29.27 135 openings 7 days · 86.72% ±11.18 926 openings 30 days · 87.64% ±10.41 1,069 openings since tracking started · 87.64% ±10.41 1,069 openings 52.5% 82.5% 112.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/firestarter?window=24h) | 135 | 82.44% ±29.3 | −0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/firestarter?window=7d) | 926 | 86.72% ±11.2 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/firestarter) | 1,069 | 87.64% ±10.4 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/firestarter?window=all) | 1,069 | 87.64% ±10.4 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,111 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $378 540 coins | 10.8% | 9 | 8.9 | 1.01× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $354 506 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $259 370 coins | 2.8% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.60× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $251 358 coins | 3.6% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.90× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $243 347 coins | 1.7% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.90× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 154 | $173 247 coins | 4.0% | 10 | 7.2 | 1.38× | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $169 242 coins | 3.3% | 9 | 6.1 | 1.47× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $133 190 coins | 2.4% | 2 | 5.6 | 0.36× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $102 146 coins | 3.3% | 11 | 10.0 | 1.10× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $91.70 131 coins | 26.6% | 88 | 90.0 | 0.98× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $80.50 115 coins | 4.3% | 16 | 16.7 | 0.96× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $66.61 95.15 coins | 7.2% | 24 | 33.3 | 0.72× | | [ESL One Cologne 2014 Challengers other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2014-challengers) | 1 in 25 | $60.06 85.8 coins | 8.6% | 36 | 44.4 | 0.81× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $49.60 70.86 coins | 3.6% | 19 | 22.2 | 0.86× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-duct-tape-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $39.71 56.73 coins | 7.1% | 48 | 55.6 | 0.86× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $27.38 39.11 coins | 6.9% | 94 | 77.8 | 1.21× | | [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $1.95 2.78 coins | 1.7% | 271 | 277.8 | 0.98× | | [P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.74 1.06 coins | 0.5% | 218 | 222.2 | 0.98× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Tuxedo (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tuxedo-well-worn) | 20.0% | $0.19 0.27 coins | 0.1% | 248 | 222.2 | 1.12× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=firestarter) [CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tuxedo-well-worn) Hidden $30.67 43.82 coins $0.19 0.27 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tuxedo-well-worn) Hidden $30.67 43.82 coins $0.19 0.27 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tuxedo-well-worn) [El Gamblino 𝓜𝓐𝓕𝓘𝓐](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/El%20Gamblino%20%F0%9D%93%9C%F0%9D%93%90%F0%9D%93%95%F0%9D%93%98%F0%9D%93%90) $30.67 43.82 coins $0.19 0.27 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-field-tested) Hidden $30.67 43.82 coins $27.38 39.11 coins 0.89x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-field-tested) Hidden $30.67 43.82 coins $27.38 39.11 coins 0.89x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) Hidden $30.67 43.82 coins $66.61 95.15 coins 2.17x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [P250 | Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) Hidden $30.67 43.82 coins $0.74 1.06 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 23:51 UTC [P250 | Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) Hidden $30.67 43.82 coins $0.74 1.06 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 23:51 UTC [MAG-7 | Firestarter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.67 43.82 coins $1.95 2.78 coins 0.06x 2026-11-10 23:51 UTC [MAG-7 | Firestarter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-minimal-wear) [csgoroll prayer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/csgoroll%20prayer) $30.67 43.82 coins $1.95 2.78 coins 0.06x 2026-11-10 23:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $30.67 | 90.91% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $30.67 | 90.91% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $30.90 | 90.90% | 19 | | 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $31.37 | 90.91% | 19 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $31.37 | 90.91% | 19 | | 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $31.32 | 90.92% | 19 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $31.32 | 90.91% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 20.8% covert 17.7% extraordinary 12.5% base 4.0% mil spec 45.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt