---
title: "Fireworks Case case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Fireworks Case ($25.15) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 19 items with odds, observed 95.30% over 758 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fireworks-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Fireworks Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fireworks-case)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Fireworks Case

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fireworks-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fireworks-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fireworks-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fireworks-case?window=all)

Price · $25.15 · 35.93 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $22.87 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 95.30% · 758 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 99 openings · below min

7 days · 97.30% ±17.69 652 openings

30 days · 95.30% ±16.41 758 openings

since tracking started · 95.30% ±16.41 758 openings

42.0% 87.8% 133.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fireworks-case?window=24h) | 99 | 87.90% ±45.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fireworks-case?window=7d) | 652 | 97.30% ±17.7 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fireworks-case) | 758 | 95.30% ±16.4 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fireworks-case?window=all) | 758 | 95.30% ±16.4 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 758 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 20,000 | $6,790 9,700 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,438 2,054 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,142 1,631 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,091 1,559 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,059 1,513 coins | 0.2% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $409 584 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $113 161 coins | 14.8% | 26 | 22.7 | 1.14× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $90.30 129 coins | 15.8% | 29 | 30.3 | 0.96× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $84.00 120 coins | 3.7% | 9 | 7.6 | 1.19× |
| [P2000 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $71.40 102 coins | 15.6% | 30 | 37.9 | 0.79× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $48.90 69.86 coins | 12.8% | 50 | 45.5 | 1.10× |
| [AUG \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $28.27 40.38 coins | 7.4% | 54 | 45.5 | 1.19× |
| [P250 \| Splash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $16.31 23.3 coins | 5.7% | 57 | 60.6 | 0.94× |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $15.88 22.69 coins | 4.2% | 40 | 45.5 | 0.88× |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-factory-new) | 10.0% | $15.07 21.53 coins | 6.6% | 92 | 75.8 | 1.21× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $8.20 11.72 coins | 3.2% | 66 | 68.0 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-re-entry-factory-new) | 15.0% | $5.33 7.62 coins | 3.5% | 115 | 113.7 | 1.01× |
| [Nova \| Tempest (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $4.89 6.98 coins | 2.6% | 93 | 91.0 | 1.02× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-factory-new) | 15.0% | $2.51 3.58 coins | 1.6% | 96 | 113.7 | 0.84× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) [NoSkIlL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/NoSkIlL) $25.17 35.96 coins $1,056 1,508 coins 41.94x 2026-11-05 15:53 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=fireworks-case)

[UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) [Veckans](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Veckans) $25.15 35.93 coins $15.88 22.69 coins 0.63x 2026-11-11 10:06 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.15 35.93 coins $48.90 69.86 coins 1.94x 2026-11-11 10:06 UTC

[P2000 | Obsidian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-factory-new) Hidden $25.15 35.93 coins $15.07 21.53 coins 0.60x 2026-11-11 10:06 UTC

[P2000 | Obsidian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-factory-new) Hidden $25.15 35.93 coins $15.07 21.53 coins 0.60x 2026-11-11 10:06 UTC

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-re-entry-factory-new) Hidden $25.15 35.93 coins $5.33 7.62 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 10:04 UTC

[Nova | Tempest (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.15 35.93 coins $4.89 6.98 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 10:04 UTC

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-re-entry-factory-new) [Cousin of po](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Cousin%20of%20po) $25.15 35.93 coins $5.33 7.62 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 10:04 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-factory-new) Hidden $25.15 35.93 coins $2.51 3.58 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 10:04 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.15 35.93 coins $8.20 11.72 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 10:04 UTC

[P2000 | Obsidian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-factory-new) Hidden $25.15 35.93 coins $15.07 21.53 coins 0.60x 2026-11-11 10:04 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $25.15 | 90.92% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $25.51 | 90.92% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.17 | 90.90% | 19 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 7.0% restricted 33.0% classified 31.0% legendary 0.0% mil spec 29.0% best hit $1,056 (41.94x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt