---
title: "Flare case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Flare ($176.65) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 83.03% over 161 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flare
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:41Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Flare](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flare)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Flare

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flare?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flare?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flare) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flare?window=all)

Price · $176.65 · 252 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $160.59 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.03% · 161 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 13 openings · below min

7 days · 87.59% ±17.27 102 openings

30 days · 83.03% ±13.75 161 openings

since tracking started · 83.03% ±13.75 161 openings

20.5% 69.5% 118.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flare?window=24h) | 13 | 69.74% ±48.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flare?window=7d) | 102 | 87.59% ±17.3 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flare) | 161 | 83.03% ±13.8 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flare?window=all) | 161 | 83.03% ±13.8 | −1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 162 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1,047 1,496 coins | 13.0% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.62× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $888 1,269 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 50 | $415 593 coins | 5.2% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.62× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $295 421 coins | 3.7% | 7 | 3.2 | 2.16× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $246 351 coins | 4.6% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.82× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $239 342 coins | 4.5% | 2 | 4.9 | 0.41× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $239 341 coins | 5.9% | 3 | 6.5 | 0.46× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $229 327 coins | 4.3% | 8 | 4.9 | 1.65× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $206 294 coins | 5.1% | 6 | 6.5 | 0.93× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $204 292 coins | 3.8% | 8 | 4.9 | 1.65× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $191 273 coins | 7.1% | 6 | 9.7 | 0.62× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 15.0% | $141 201 coins | 13.1% | 18 | 24.3 | 0.74× |
| [Sticker \| fitch (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fitch-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 14 | $122 175 coins | 5.3% | 11 | 11.3 | 0.97× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 17 | $121 173 coins | 4.5% | 15 | 9.7 | 1.54× |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-field-tested) | 15.0% | $90.30 129 coins | 8.4% | 28 | 24.3 | 1.15× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $66.84 95.48 coins | 2.9% | 20 | 11.3 | 1.76× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 17.5% | $51.69 73.84 coins | 5.6% | 22 | 28.3 | 0.78× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $177 252 coins $1,047 1,496 coins 5.93x 2026-11-10 03:05 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $178 254 coins $1,047 1,496 coins 5.88x 2026-11-07 01:34 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=flare)

[★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $177 252 coins $66.84 95.48 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $177 252 coins $66.84 95.48 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-factory-new) Hidden $177 252 coins $204 292 coins 1.16x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Call me Johnny](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Call%20me%20Johnny) $177 252 coins $121 173 coins 0.69x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-factory-new) Hidden $177 252 coins $204 292 coins 1.16x 2026-11-11 11:45 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $177 252 coins $239 342 coins 1.36x 2026-11-11 07:50 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [Tiny Tim.CsgoRoll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Tiny%20Tim.CsgoRoll.com) $177 252 coins $66.84 95.48 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 06:10 UTC

[Sticker | fitch (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fitch-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $177 252 coins $122 175 coins 0.69x 2026-11-11 00:50 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [achilles](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/achilles) $177 252 coins $66.84 95.48 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 00:50 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-forest-ddpat-well-worn) [Philiacos](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Philiacos) $177 252 coins $141 201 coins 0.80x 2026-11-10 22:16 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $177 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $177 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $178 | 90.91% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 50.0% classified 19.0% extraordinary 25.0% mil spec 6.0% best hit $1,047 (5.93x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt