--- title: "Flimsy case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Flimsy ($4.29) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.95% from 13 items with odds, observed 87.48% over 49.5K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flimsy rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Flimsy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flimsy) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Flimsy A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flimsy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flimsy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flimsy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flimsy?window=all) Price · $4.29 · 6.13 coins Advertised RTP · 90.95% · EV $3.90 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.48% · 49.5K openings, odds method Variance · 21.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 42 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 92.29% ±10.97 6,702 openings 7 days · 87.68% ±4.41 41.5K openings 30 days · 87.48% ±4.04 49.5K openings since tracking started · 87.48% ±4.04 49.5K openings 80.5% 92.3% 104.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flimsy?window=24h) | 6,702 | 92.29% ±11.0 | +0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flimsy?window=7d) | 41.5K | 87.68% ±4.41 | −1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flimsy) | 49.5K | 87.48% ±4.04 | −1.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flimsy?window=all) | 49.5K | 87.48% ±4.04 | −1.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 49.6K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $316 452 coins | 4.1% | 21 | 24.8 | 0.85× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $241 344 coins | 6.2% | 37 | 49.6 | 0.75× | | [Sticker \| Snax (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-snax-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 667 | $200 285 coins | 7.7% | 81 | 74.3 | 1.09× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $121 173 coins | 7.8% | 115 | 123.9 | 0.93× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $98.70 141 coins | 12.6% | 247 | 247.8 | 1.00× | | [★ Falchion Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife) | 1 in 286 | $88.90 127 coins | 8.0% | 171 | 173.5 | 0.99× | | [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $78.40 112 coins | 20.1% | 484 | 495.7 | 0.98× | | [USP-S \| Serum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $55.67 79.53 coins | 14.3% | 487 | 495.7 | 0.98× | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $45.13 64.47 coins | 11.6% | 461 | 495.7 | 0.93× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $37.39 53.42 coins | 5.7% | 296 | 297.4 | 1.00× | | [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.14 0.2 coins | 1.1% | 15,052 | 14869.8 | 1.01× | | [UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-field-tested) | 35.0% | $0.06 0.09 coins | 0.6% | 17,365 | 17348.1 | 1.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mudder-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.06 0.08 coins | 0.4% | 14,749 | 14869.8 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $4.41 6.3 coins $326 465 coins 73.81x 2026-11-08 01:59 UTC [★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) [DEVIL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DEVIL) $4.41 6.3 coins $326 465 coins 73.81x 2026-11-07 11:36 UTC [★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $4.41 6.3 coins $326 465 coins 73.81x 2026-11-07 01:07 UTC [★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) [𝕾𝖙3𝖋𝖆𝖓](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9D%95%BE%F0%9D%96%993%F0%9D%96%8B%F0%9D%96%86%F0%9D%96%93) $4.41 6.3 coins $326 465 coins 73.81x 2026-11-06 16:18 UTC [★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $4.41 6.3 coins $326 465 coins 73.81x 2026-11-06 05:41 UTC [★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $4.41 6.3 coins $326 465 coins 73.81x 2026-11-05 15:53 UTC [★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $4.41 6.3 coins $326 465 coins 73.81x 2026-11-04 10:18 UTC [★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $4.41 6.3 coins $326 465 coins 73.81x 2026-11-03 21:28 UTC [★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $4.41 6.3 coins $326 465 coins 73.81x 2026-11-03 18:31 UTC [★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $4.29 6.13 coins $316 452 coins 73.74x 2026-11-11 09:19 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=flimsy) [Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mudder-field-tested) Hidden $4.29 6.13 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $4.29 6.13 coins $0.14 0.2 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mudder-field-tested) Hidden $4.29 6.13 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) [malakasohn](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/malakasohn) $4.29 6.13 coins $0.14 0.2 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mudder-field-tested) [gaygay](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/gaygay) $4.29 6.13 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $4.29 6.13 coins $0.14 0.2 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-field-tested) [malakasohn](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/malakasohn) $4.29 6.13 coins $0.06 0.09 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $4.29 6.13 coins $0.14 0.2 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mudder-field-tested) Hidden $4.29 6.13 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mudder-field-tested) Hidden $4.29 6.13 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $4.29 | 90.95% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.30 | 90.90% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4.38 | 90.93% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $4.42 | 90.86% | 13 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.41 | 90.94% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.9% extraordinary 0.1% restricted 1.0% classified 2.0% industrial 95.0% best hit $326 (73.81x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.95 on average: an expected loss of $9.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt