--- title: "Flipped case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Flipped ($43.25) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 13 items with odds, observed 100.09% over 474 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flipped rendered: 2026-11-11T13:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Flipped](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flipped) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Flipped A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flipped?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flipped?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flipped) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flipped?window=all) Price · $43.25 · 61.79 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $39.32 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 100.09% · 474 openings, odds method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 101.60% ±10.96 371 openings 30 days · 100.09% ±9.69 474 openings since tracking started · 100.09% ±9.69 474 openings -0.5% 70.5% 141.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flipped?window=24h) | 6 | 53.05% ±87.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flipped?window=7d) | 371 | 101.60% ±11.0 | +1.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flipped) | 474 | 100.09% ±9.69 | +1.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flipped?window=all) | 474 | 100.09% ±9.69 | +1.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 486 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $172 246 coins | 27.4% | 33 | 30.4 | 1.09× | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $111 159 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-well-worn) | 12.5% | $109 155 coins | 34.5% | 70 | 60.8 | 1.15× | | [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 89 | $70.70 101 coins | 2.0% | 8 | 5.5 | 1.46× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $47.66 68.09 coins | 1.8% | 7 | 7.3 | 0.96× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 444 | $42.97 61.38 coins | 0.2% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.83× | | [AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $42.29 60.41 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $39.71 56.73 coins | 6.3% | 34 | 30.4 | 1.12× | | [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) | 25.0% | $29.13 41.61 coins | 18.5% | 132 | 121.5 | 1.09× | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-well-worn) | 12.5% | $17.16 24.51 coins | 5.5% | 59 | 60.8 | 0.97× | | [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $15.58 22.25 coins | 2.5% | 19 | 30.4 | 0.63× | | [MAG-7 \| Chainmail (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-chainmail-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $12.57 17.95 coins | 1.0% | 20 | 15.8 | 1.27× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 102 | 121.5 | 0.84× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=flipped) [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $43.25 61.79 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:12 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $43.25 61.79 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:12 UTC [Galil AR | Chatterbox (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-well-worn) Hidden $43.25 61.79 coins $109 155 coins 2.51x 2026-11-11 04:12 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) [MASON92J](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/MASON92J) $43.25 61.79 coins $29.13 41.61 coins 0.67x 2026-11-11 04:12 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $43.25 61.79 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 17:17 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [ViggerMcNieger](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ViggerMcNieger) $43.25 61.79 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 17:17 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $43.25 61.79 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 11:41 UTC [Galil AR | Chatterbox (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-well-worn) Hidden $43.25 61.79 coins $109 155 coins 2.51x 2026-11-10 11:41 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) Hidden $43.25 61.79 coins $29.13 41.61 coins 0.67x 2026-11-10 11:41 UTC [AWP | Sun in Leo (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-well-worn) [DeeDee♥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DeeDee%E2%99%A5) $43.25 61.79 coins $17.16 24.51 coins 0.40x 2026-11-10 11:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $43.25 | 90.92% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $43.68 | 90.91% | 13 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $43.44 | 90.91% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 20.5% industrial 16.9% classified 12.6% mil spec 25.0% consumer 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt