--- title: "Flooded case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Flooded ($13.85) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 26 items with odds, observed 91.55% over 26.4K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flooded rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Flooded](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flooded) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Flooded A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flooded?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flooded?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flooded) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flooded?window=all) Price · $13.85 · 19.79 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $12.59 from 26 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.55% · 26.4K openings, odds method Variance · 11.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 39 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 82.83% ±12.38 2,972 openings 7 days · 93.00% ±4.50 22.5K openings 30 days · 91.55% ±4.15 26.4K openings since tracking started · 91.55% ±4.15 26.4K openings 70.0% 84.0% 98.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flooded?window=24h) | 2,972 | 82.83% ±12.4 | −1.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flooded?window=7d) | 22.5K | 93.00% ±4.50 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flooded) | 26.4K | 91.55% ±4.15 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flooded?window=all) | 26.4K | 91.55% ±4.15 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26.5K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 333,333 | $737 1,053 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $657 939 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200,000 | $643 918 coins | 0.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested-2) | 1 in 200 | $412 589 coins | 16.4% | 133 | 132.3 | 1.01× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 5,000 | $388 554 coins | 0.6% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.94× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 10,000 | $349 498 coins | 0.3% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× | | [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $274 392 coins | 10.9% | 142 | 132.3 | 1.07× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $205 293 coins | 8.1% | 149 | 132.3 | 1.13× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $181 258 coins | 7.2% | 144 | 132.3 | 1.09× | | [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $174 249 coins | 6.9% | 134 | 132.3 | 1.01× | | [★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $159 227 coins | 6.3% | 134 | 132.3 | 1.01× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $125 178 coins | 4.9% | 112 | 132.3 | 0.85× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $118 168 coins | 4.7% | 113 | 132.3 | 0.85× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $109 155 coins | 4.3% | 139 | 132.3 | 1.05× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $105 150 coins | 4.2% | 135 | 132.3 | 1.02× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $102 145 coins | 4.0% | 131 | 132.3 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $91.70 131 coins | 3.6% | 136 | 132.3 | 1.03× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $82.60 118 coins | 3.3% | 135 | 132.3 | 1.02× | | [Desert Eagle \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $80.50 115 coins | 3.2% | 121 | 132.3 | 0.91× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $68.43 97.76 coins | 2.7% | 130 | 132.3 | 0.98× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $51.72 73.88 coins | 2.1% | 138 | 132.3 | 1.04× | | [★ Survival Knife knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife) | 1 in 200 | $46.14 65.92 coins | 1.8% | 131 | 132.3 | 0.99× | | [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 140 | $41.94 59.92 coins | 2.4% | 185 | 189.0 | 0.98× | | [USP-S \| Business Class (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-well-worn) | 1 in 133 | $28.34 40.49 coins | 1.7% | 176 | 198.4 | 0.89× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 45.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 11,953 | 11907.0 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 45.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 11,882 | 11907.0 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) [rokss](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/rokss) $14.05 20.07 coins $655 935 coins 46.59x 2026-11-06 21:00 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=flooded) [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $13.85 19.79 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $13.85 19.79 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $13.85 19.79 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $13.85 19.79 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [JVKEE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/JVKEE) $13.85 19.79 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $13.85 19.79 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $13.85 19.79 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $13.85 19.79 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $13.85 19.79 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $13.85 19.79 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $13.85 | 90.90% | 26 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $13.90 | 90.89% | 26 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $14.05 | 90.93% | 26 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 5.5% restricted 0.5% extraordinary 1.0% red 0.5% industrial 0.5% Immortal 0.5% classified 0.7% mil spec 0.8% consumer 90.0% best hit $655 (46.59x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt