--- title: "Flow case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Flow ($20.69) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 24 items with odds, observed 94.27% over 884 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flow rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Flow](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flow) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Flow A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flow?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flow?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flow) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flow?window=all) Price · $20.69 · 29.56 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $18.81 from 24 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.27% · 884 openings, odds method Variance · 4.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 95.54% ±29.62 206 openings 7 days · 96.95% ±15.18 808 openings 30 days · 94.27% ±14.53 884 openings since tracking started · 94.27% ±14.53 884 openings 65.5% 95.8% 126.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flow?window=24h) | 206 | 95.54% ±29.6 | +0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flow?window=7d) | 808 | 96.95% ±15.2 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flow) | 884 | 94.27% ±14.5 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/flow?window=all) | 884 | 94.27% ±14.5 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 884 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 10,000 | $327 467 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $286 409 coins | 30.4% | 22 | 17.7 | 1.24× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 2,857 | $260 372 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,818 | $256 366 coins | 0.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $218 311 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $206 294 coins | 1.6% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.75× | | [★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 286 | $145 207 coins | 2.7% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $114 163 coins | 1.5% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× | | [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $84.00 120 coins | 10.3% | 14 | 20.3 | 0.69× | | [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $77.00 110 coins | 5.1% | 17 | 11.1 | 1.54× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $69.36 99.08 coins | 2.6% | 3 | 6.2 | 0.48× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $61.62 88.03 coins | 1.6% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.13× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $49.17 70.24 coins | 2.5% | 6 | 8.4 | 0.71× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 87 | $45.15 64.5 coins | 2.8% | 9 | 10.2 | 0.89× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-caiman-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $38.40 54.86 coins | 2.9% | 14 | 12.4 | 1.13× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $22.61 32.3 coins | 2.0% | 18 | 15.0 | 1.20× | | [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $21.01 30.01 coins | 3.3% | 34 | 26.5 | 1.28× | | [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $21.01 30.01 coins | 4.5% | 35 | 35.4 | 0.99× | | [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $17.39 24.84 coins | 2.7% | 30 | 25.6 | 1.17× | | [Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-copper-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $17.07 24.38 coins | 6.3% | 58 | 61.9 | 0.94× | | [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $13.14 18.77 coins | 3.8% | 45 | 48.6 | 0.93× | | [Sawed-Off \| Mosaico (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-mosaico-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $6.32 9.03 coins | 2.7% | 86 | 70.7 | 1.22× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 27.0% | $3.00 4.29 coins | 4.3% | 222 | 238.7 | 0.93× | | [Tec-9 \| Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brass-well-worn) | 29.7% | $2.35 3.36 coins | 3.7% | 261 | 262.5 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=flow) [Tec-9 | Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brass-well-worn) Hidden $20.69 29.56 coins $2.35 3.36 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) Hidden $20.69 29.56 coins $3.00 4.29 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) Hidden $20.69 29.56 coins $3.00 4.29 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC [Tec-9 | Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brass-well-worn) Hidden $20.69 29.56 coins $2.35 3.36 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC [Sawed-Off | Mosaico (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-mosaico-well-worn) Hidden $20.69 29.56 coins $6.32 9.03 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC [Tec-9 | Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brass-well-worn) [El Gamblino 𝓜𝓐𝓕𝓘𝓐](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/El%20Gamblino%20%F0%9D%93%9C%F0%9D%93%90%F0%9D%93%95%F0%9D%93%98%F0%9D%93%90) $20.69 29.56 coins $2.35 3.36 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC [Tec-9 | Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brass-well-worn) Hidden $20.69 29.56 coins $2.35 3.36 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 06:00 UTC [Sawed-Off | Mosaico (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-mosaico-well-worn) Hidden $20.69 29.56 coins $6.32 9.03 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 06:00 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) Hidden $20.69 29.56 coins $3.00 4.29 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 06:00 UTC [Tec-9 | Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brass-well-worn) Hidden $20.69 29.56 coins $2.35 3.36 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 06:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $20.69 | 90.92% | 24 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $20.40 | 90.90% | 24 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $20.66 | 90.90% | 24 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.67 | 90.90% | 24 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 5.5% restricted 20.5% gold 0.7% classified 6.9% mil spec 31.4% industrial 8.0% Classified 27.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt