--- title: "Fortress case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Fortress ($62.82) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 9 items with odds, observed 94.55% over 1,167 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fortress rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Fortress](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fortress) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Fortress A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fortress?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fortress?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fortress) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fortress?window=all) Price · $62.82 · 89.74 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $57.11 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.55% · 1,167 openings, odds method Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 19.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 78 openings · below min 7 days · 98.70% ±11.94 823 openings 30 days · 94.55% ±10.04 1,167 openings since tracking started · 94.55% ±10.04 1,167 openings 66.5% 105.8% 145.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fortress?window=24h) | 78 | 105.86% ±38.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fortress?window=7d) | 823 | 98.70% ±11.9 | +1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fortress) | 1,167 | 94.55% ±10.0 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fortress?window=all) | 1,167 | 94.55% ±10.0 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,167 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,657 9,510 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $263 375 coins | 41.4% | 116 | 105.0 | 1.10× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $241 344 coins | 1.1% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $223 318 coins | 4.9% | 13 | 14.6 | 0.89× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $163 233 coins | 25.7% | 106 | 105.0 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 10.5% | $113 162 coins | 20.8% | 132 | 122.4 | 1.08× | | [MP7 \| Cirrus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-factory-new) | 20.0% | $10.91 15.59 coins | 3.8% | 226 | 233.4 | 0.97× | | [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) | 30.0% | $1.58 2.26 coins | 0.8% | 348 | 350.1 | 0.99× | | [AUG \| Ricochet (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.00 1.43 coins | 0.4% | 224 | 233.4 | 0.96× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=fortress) [AUG | Ricochet (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-factory-new) Hidden $62.82 89.74 coins $1.00 1.43 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC [Sawed-Off | Serenity (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) Hidden $62.82 89.74 coins $1.58 2.26 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC [Sawed-Off | Serenity (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) [BeastafiedBeast](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BeastafiedBeast) $62.82 89.74 coins $1.58 2.26 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-battle-scarred) Hidden $62.82 89.74 coins $263 375 coins 4.18x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC [Sawed-Off | Serenity (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) Hidden $62.82 89.74 coins $1.58 2.26 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC [AUG | Ricochet (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-factory-new) [BeastafiedBeast](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BeastafiedBeast) $62.82 89.74 coins $1.00 1.43 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-well-worn) Hidden $62.82 89.74 coins $163 233 coins 2.60x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC [MP7 | Cirrus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-factory-new) Hidden $62.82 89.74 coins $10.91 15.59 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 15:50 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) Hidden $62.82 89.74 coins $113 162 coins 1.81x 2026-11-11 15:49 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) Hidden $62.82 89.74 coins $113 162 coins 1.81x 2026-11-11 15:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $62.82 | 90.91% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $62.82 | 90.91% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $62.45 | 90.90% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $63.59 | 90.91% | 9 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $63.60 | 90.91% | 9 | | 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $63.59 | 90.91% | 9 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $63.58 | 90.91% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 30.0% mil spec 40.0% restricted 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt