--- title: "Fortune case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Fortune ($629.29) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 19 items with odds, observed 79.99% over 695 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fortune rendered: 2026-11-11T13:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Fortune](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fortune) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Fortune A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fortune?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fortune?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fortune) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fortune?window=all) Price · $629.29 · 899 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $572.08 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.99% · 695 openings, odds method Variance · 27.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 44 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 90 openings · below min 7 days · 79.42% ±39.84 663 openings 30 days · 79.99% ±38.90 695 openings since tracking started · 79.99% ±38.90 695 openings 1.0% 110.2% 219.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fortune?window=24h) | 90 | 110.18% ±108.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fortune?window=7d) | 663 | 79.42% ±39.8 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fortune) | 695 | 79.99% ±38.9 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fortune?window=all) | 695 | 79.99% ±38.9 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 695 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) + 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new-4x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $140K 200,000 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) 4x Reason (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new-4x-reason-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $98K 140,000 coins | 8.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $27.5K 39,250 coins | 4.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [EMS Katowice 2014 Legends other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-legends) | 1 in 667 | $25K 35,730 coins | 6.6% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 500 | $21.8K 31,155 coins | 7.6% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.16× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $10.7K 15,300 coins | 4.7% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 154 | $8,057 11,510 coins | 9.2% | 6 | 4.5 | 1.33× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 118 | $7,336 10,480 coins | 10.9% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.02× | | [Sticker \| HellRaisers (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 333 | $6,780 9,685 coins | 3.6% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.96× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $3,930 5,615 coins | 3.4% | 4 | 3.5 | 1.15× | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $3,213 4,590 coins | 11.2% | 10 | 13.9 | 0.72× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $2,205 3,150 coins | 5.9% | 12 | 10.7 | 1.12× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,949 2,785 coins | 3.4% | 7 | 7.0 | 1.01× | | [AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $1,775 2,535 coins | 6.8% | 21 | 15.3 | 1.37× | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 83 | $1,467 2,096 coins | 3.1% | 10 | 8.3 | 1.20× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $1,136 1,623 coins | 5.0% | 12 | 17.4 | 0.69× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 67 | $1,081 1,544 coins | 2.8% | 14 | 10.4 | 1.34× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) | 42.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 290 | 295.4 | 0.98× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 42.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 297 | 295.4 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) [m1chi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1chi) $629 899 coins $21.8K 31,155 coins 34.66x 2026-11-10 14:11 UTC [Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $629 899 coins $21.8K 31,155 coins 34.66x 2026-11-09 06:23 UTC [Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $629 899 coins $21.8K 31,155 coins 34.66x 2026-11-09 05:58 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-factory-new) Hidden $637 910 coins $10.7K 15,300 coins 16.80x 2026-11-03 12:56 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [m1chi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1chi) $629 899 coins $8,057 11,510 coins 12.80x 2026-11-10 14:17 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [m1chi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1chi) $629 899 coins $8,057 11,510 coins 12.80x 2026-11-09 05:46 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $629 899 coins $8,057 11,510 coins 12.80x 2026-11-09 05:28 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $629 899 coins $8,057 11,510 coins 12.80x 2026-11-09 05:26 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $637 910 coins $8,057 11,510 coins 12.64x 2026-11-07 18:18 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $637 910 coins $8,057 11,510 coins 12.64x 2026-11-06 00:47 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=fortune) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $629 899 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 14:25 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $629 899 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 14:25 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $629 899 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 14:25 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $629 899 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 14:25 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) [m1chi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1chi) $629 899 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 14:25 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $629 899 coins $1,949 2,785 coins 3.10x 2026-11-10 14:25 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $629 899 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 14:23 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $629 899 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 14:23 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [m1chi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1chi) $629 899 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 14:23 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $629 899 coins $1,467 2,096 coins 2.33x 2026-11-10 14:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $629 | 90.91% | 19 | | 3 Nov, 16:07 UTC | $637 | 90.91% | 19 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $637 | 90.91% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 1.0% base 0.1% remarkable 0.5% extraordinary 0.3% covert 11.1% classified 2.0% consumer 85.0% best hit $21.8K (34.66x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt