---
title: "Fragile case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Fragile ($3.73) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.95% from 18 items with odds, observed 90.80% over 10.1K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fragile
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:16Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Fragile](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fragile)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Fragile

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fragile?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fragile?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fragile) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fragile?window=all)

Price · $3.73 · 5.33 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.95% · EV $3.39 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.80% · 10.1K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 40.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 92.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.54% ±7.92 981 openings

7 days · 91.31% ±2.82 7,457 openings

30 days · 90.80% ±2.42 10.1K openings

since tracking started · 90.80% ±2.42 10.1K openings

78.0% 86.5% 95.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fragile?window=24h) | 981 | 86.54% ±7.92 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fragile?window=7d) | 7,457 | 91.31% ±2.82 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fragile) | 10.1K | 90.80% ±2.42 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fragile?window=all) | 10.1K | 90.80% ±2.42 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-night-factory-new) | 1 in 76,923 | $373 533 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $132 189 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Souvenir FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-cyanospatter-factory-new) | 1 in 14,925 | $69.57 99.39 coins | 0.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,923 | $66.79 95.42 coins | 1.0% | 2 | 5.2 | 0.38× |
| [Sticker \| Counter Logic Gaming (Holo) \| Cologne 2016 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-counter-logic-gaming-holo-cologne-2016) | 1 in 4,167 | $60.72 86.75 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $59.44 84.91 coins | 0.2% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| Titan \| Cologne 2015 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-cologne-2015) | 1 in 714 | $52.29 74.7 coins | 2.2% | 18 | 14.1 | 1.28× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,333 | $50.96 72.8 coins | 1.1% | 9 | 7.6 | 1.19× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 286 | $39.89 56.99 coins | 4.1% | 37 | 35.3 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $19.69 28.13 coins | 5.8% | 105 | 100.8 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $16.90 24.14 coins | 5.0% | 100 | 100.8 | 0.99× |
| [Sticker \| Team Immunity (Foil) \| Cologne 2015 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-immunity-foil-cologne-2015) | 1 in 83 | $14.95 21.35 coins | 5.3% | 122 | 120.9 | 1.01× |
| [Souvenir P90 \| Glacier Mesh (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-glacier-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $6.90 9.85 coins | 3.0% | 136 | 151.2 | 0.90× |
| [Sticker \| Countdown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-countdown-foil) | 1 in 38 | $4.38 6.25 coins | 3.4% | 289 | 266.1 | 1.09× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $3.26 4.65 coins | 1.9% | 209 | 201.6 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Nightshade (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-nightshade-well-worn) | 30.0% | $3.04 4.35 coins | 26.9% | 2,965 | 3023.7 | 0.98× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Team Liquid \| Boston 2018 graffiti · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-team-liquid-boston-2018) | 30.0% | $2.44 3.48 coins | 21.5% | 3,034 | 3023.7 | 1.00× |
| [Sticker \| Blue Gem (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-blue-gem-glitter) | 30.0% | $2.01 2.87 coins | 17.8% | 3,051 | 3023.7 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=fragile)

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-nightshade-well-worn) [Pizdukas](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pizdukas) $3.73 5.33 coins $3.04 4.35 coins 0.82x 2026-11-11 17:00 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-nightshade-well-worn) Hidden $3.73 5.33 coins $3.04 4.35 coins 0.82x 2026-11-11 17:00 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Team Liquid | Boston 2018 graffiti · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-team-liquid-boston-2018) Hidden $3.73 5.33 coins $2.44 3.48 coins 0.65x 2026-11-11 17:00 UTC

[Sticker | Blue Gem (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-blue-gem-glitter) [Barry](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Barry) $3.73 5.33 coins $2.01 2.87 coins 0.54x 2026-11-11 17:00 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Team Liquid | Boston 2018 graffiti · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-team-liquid-boston-2018) [Barry](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Barry) $3.73 5.33 coins $2.44 3.48 coins 0.65x 2026-11-11 17:00 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-nightshade-well-worn) [Pizdukas](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pizdukas) $3.73 5.33 coins $3.04 4.35 coins 0.82x 2026-11-11 17:00 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-nightshade-well-worn) Hidden $3.73 5.33 coins $3.04 4.35 coins 0.82x 2026-11-11 17:00 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-nightshade-well-worn) Hidden $3.73 5.33 coins $3.04 4.35 coins 0.82x 2026-11-11 17:00 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Team Liquid | Boston 2018 graffiti · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-team-liquid-boston-2018) Hidden $3.73 5.33 coins $2.44 3.48 coins 0.65x 2026-11-11 16:58 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Team Liquid | Boston 2018 graffiti · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-team-liquid-boston-2018) Hidden $3.73 5.33 coins $2.44 3.48 coins 0.65x 2026-11-11 16:58 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $3.73 | 90.95% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $3.78 | 90.83% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $3.75 | 90.96% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.75 | 90.96% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed rare 0.0% restricted 4.0% industrial 0.0% classified 0.5% remarkable 30.0% high 30.1% exotic 3.8% mil spec 31.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.95 on average: an expected loss of $9.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt