--- title: "Freefall case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Freefall ($50.44) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 11 items with odds, observed 74.88% over 55 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/freefall rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Freefall](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/freefall) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Freefall A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/freefall?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/freefall?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/freefall) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/freefall?window=all) Price · $50.44 · 72.06 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $45.85 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 74.88% · 55 openings, odds method Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 33.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 41 openings · below min 30 days · 55 openings · below min since tracking started · 55 openings · below min 48.5% 72.5% 96.5% **Small sample.** 55 openings and 15.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/freefall?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/freefall?window=7d) | 41 | 72.38% ±23.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/freefall) | 55 | 74.88% ±20.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/freefall?window=all) | 55 | 74.88% ±20.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 55 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $183 261 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $153 218 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $107 153 coins | 18.7% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.91× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $93.10 133 coins | 10.2% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.73× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $86.80 124 coins | 3.8% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $84.00 120 coins | 9.2% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.09× | | [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 11.5% | $80.50 115 coins | 20.2% | 3 | 6.3 | 0.47× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lt-commander-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $76.30 109 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $74.20 106 coins | 8.1% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.45× | | [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) | 20.0% | $29.13 41.61 coins | 12.7% | 15 | 11.0 | 1.36× | | [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 40.0% | $9.84 14.06 coins | 8.6% | 24 | 22.0 | 1.09× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=freefall) [Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) [Veckans](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Veckans) $50.44 72.06 coins $84.00 120 coins 1.67x 2026-11-09 22:38 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) [MOHAMMED](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/MOHAMMED) $50.44 72.06 coins $107 153 coins 2.12x 2026-11-09 22:38 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) [na'thanx](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/na'thanx) $50.44 72.06 coins $29.13 41.61 coins 0.58x 2026-11-09 22:38 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-stained-field-tested) [holyBUCK3T](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/holyBUCK3T) $50.44 72.06 coins $74.20 106 coins 1.47x 2026-11-09 22:38 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) Hidden $50.38 71.97 coins $30.28 43.26 coins 0.60x 2026-11-07 10:17 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-stained-field-tested) Hidden $50.38 71.97 coins $71.40 102 coins 1.42x 2026-11-07 10:17 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) Hidden $50.38 71.97 coins $9.68 13.83 coins 0.19x 2026-11-07 10:17 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) [Nopper](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Nopper) $50.38 71.97 coins $30.28 43.26 coins 0.60x 2026-11-07 10:17 UTC [P90 | Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) Hidden $50.38 71.97 coins $82.60 118 coins 1.64x 2026-11-07 01:20 UTC [Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) Hidden $50.38 71.97 coins $79.80 114 coins 1.58x 2026-11-07 01:20 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $50.44 | 90.90% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $50.53 | 90.91% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $50.38 | 90.90% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed rare 0.5% covert 32.5% classified 5.0% extraordinary 2.0% mil spec 20.0% restricted 40.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt