--- title: "Freeflow case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Freeflow ($39.65) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 9 items with odds, observed 95.95% over 1,203 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/freeflow rendered: 2026-11-11T18:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Freeflow](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/freeflow) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Freeflow A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/freeflow?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/freeflow?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/freeflow) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/freeflow?window=all) Price · $39.65 · 56.65 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $36.05 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.95% · 1,203 openings, odds method Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 17.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 57.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 111.57% ±21.45 109 openings 7 days · 94.39% ±7.13 1,017 openings 30 days · 95.95% ±6.60 1,203 openings since tracking started · 95.95% ±6.60 1,203 openings 86.5% 110.0% 133.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/freeflow?window=24h) | 109 | 111.57% ±21.5 | +1.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/freeflow?window=7d) | 1,017 | 94.39% ±7.13 | +1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/freeflow) | 1,203 | 95.95% ±6.60 | +1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/freeflow?window=all) | 1,203 | 95.95% ±6.60 | +1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,204 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 500 | $356 508 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× | | [★ Bayonet \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $151 216 coins | 16.8% | 57 | 48.2 | 1.18× | | [★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $150 214 coins | 8.3% | 31 | 24.1 | 1.29× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 100 | $146 208 coins | 4.0% | 14 | 12.0 | 1.16× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $94.50 135 coins | 26.2% | 125 | 120.4 | 1.04× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $51.64 73.77 coins | 7.2% | 54 | 60.2 | 0.90× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 20.0% | $47.80 68.28 coins | 26.5% | 244 | 240.8 | 1.01× | | [PP-Bizon \| Seabird (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-well-worn) | 20.0% | $14.29 20.41 coins | 7.9% | 240 | 240.8 | 1.00× | | [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 37.8% | $1.03 1.47 coins | 1.1% | 438 | 455.1 | 0.96× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=freeflow) [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.65 56.65 coins $1.03 1.47 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.65 56.65 coins $94.50 135 coins 2.38x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) Hidden $39.65 56.65 coins $47.80 68.28 coins 1.21x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC [★ Bayonet | Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.65 56.65 coins $151 216 coins 3.81x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $39.65 56.65 coins $146 208 coins 3.67x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC [PP-Bizon | Seabird (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-well-worn) [Adsento](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Adsento) $39.65 56.65 coins $14.29 20.41 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.65 56.65 coins $1.03 1.47 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.65 56.65 coins $94.50 135 coins 2.38x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) Hidden $39.65 56.65 coins $47.80 68.28 coins 1.21x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) Hidden $39.65 56.65 coins $47.80 68.28 coins 1.21x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $39.65 | 90.91% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $38.98 | 90.91% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $39.55 | 90.91% | 9 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $39.82 | 90.91% | 9 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $37.88 | 90.91% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 17.2% extraordinary 5.0% restricted 20.0% consumer 20.0% classified 37.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt