--- title: "Frequency case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Frequency ($11.38) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.94% from 11 items with odds, observed 87.45% over 3,179 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/frequency rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Frequency](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/frequency) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Frequency A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/frequency?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/frequency?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/frequency) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/frequency?window=all) Price · $11.38 · 16.25 coins Advertised RTP · 90.94% · EV $10.34 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.45% · 3,179 openings, odds method Variance · 6.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 61.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 99.74% ±24.04 432 openings 7 days · 88.72% ±9.83 2,611 openings 30 days · 87.45% ±8.92 3,179 openings since tracking started · 87.45% ±8.92 3,179 openings 75.0% 99.8% 124.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/frequency?window=24h) | 432 | 99.74% ±24.0 | +0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/frequency?window=7d) | 2,611 | 88.72% ±9.83 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/frequency) | 3,179 | 87.45% ±8.92 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/frequency?window=all) | 3,179 | 87.45% ±8.92 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,179 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $479 685 coins | 9.3% | 5 | 6.4 | 0.79× | | [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $132 188 coins | 12.7% | 28 | 31.8 | 0.88× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $125 178 coins | 6.0% | 13 | 15.9 | 0.82× | | [USP-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $68.93 98.47 coins | 20.0% | 107 | 95.4 | 1.12× | | [P250 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $26.26 37.52 coins | 15.2% | 192 | 190.7 | 1.01× | | [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $19.99 28.56 coins | 9.7% | 145 | 159.0 | 0.91× | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $12.48 17.83 coins | 9.7% | 256 | 254.3 | 1.01× | | [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 15.0% | $11.77 16.82 coins | 17.1% | 450 | 476.9 | 0.94× | | [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.14 0.2 coins | 0.3% | 651 | 635.8 | 1.02× | | [G3SG1 \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.03 0.04 coins | 0.1% | 653 | 635.8 | 1.03× | | [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) | 21.3% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 679 | 677.1 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=frequency) [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $11.38 16.25 coins $0.14 0.2 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:32 UTC [FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) [riddi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/riddi) $11.38 16.25 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:32 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $11.38 16.25 coins $0.03 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:32 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $11.38 16.25 coins $0.14 0.2 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:32 UTC [G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) [Corteco](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Corteco) $11.38 16.25 coins $0.03 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:32 UTC [FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) Hidden $11.38 16.25 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:32 UTC [FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) Hidden $11.38 16.25 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC [FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) [★ UnToUcHaBlE ™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E2%98%85%20UnToUcHaBlE%20%E2%84%A2) $11.38 16.25 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $11.38 16.25 coins $0.14 0.2 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC [P250 | Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-factory-new) Hidden $11.38 16.25 coins $26.26 37.52 coins 2.31x 2026-11-11 11:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $11.38 | 90.94% | 11 | | 9 Nov, 02:02 UTC | $11.38 | 90.89% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $11.38 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $11.24 | 90.88% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.26 | 90.90% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 3.2% classified 35.0% red 0.5% industrial 61.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.94 on average: an expected loss of $9.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt