---
title: "Fresh case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Fresh ($127.69) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 22 items with odds, observed 119.88% over 37 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fresh
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Fresh](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fresh)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Fresh

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fresh?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fresh?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fresh) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fresh?window=all)

Price · $127.69 · 182 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $116.09 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 119.88% · 37 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 6 openings · below min

7 days · 37 openings · below min

30 days · 37 openings · below min

since tracking started · 37 openings · below min

-0.5% 76.3% 153.0%

**Small sample.** 37 openings and 5.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fresh?window=24h) | 6 | 73.09% ±78.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fresh?window=7d) | 37 | 119.88% ±32.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fresh) | 37 | 119.88% ±32.2 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fresh?window=all) | 37 | 119.88% ±32.2 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 870 | $1,241 1,773 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $957 1,367 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,176 | $566 808 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $551 787 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 500 | $467 667 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 2,000 | $445 636 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) | 12.0% | $402 574 coins | 41.5% | 9 | 4.4 | 2.03× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $355 507 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 400 | $291 415 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $179 256 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $168 240 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Minimal Wear) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $148 211 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $133 190 coins | 2.9% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $132 189 coins | 8.0% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.16× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $118 168 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Frost Borre (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-frost-borre-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $93.10 133 coins | 4.0% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.08× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $88.90 127 coins | 1.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) | 23.2% | $70.70 101 coins | 14.2% | 8 | 8.6 | 0.93× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 15.0% | $65.46 93.51 coins | 8.5% | 2 | 5.5 | 0.36× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $52.65 75.22 coins | 1.8% | 4 | 1.5 | 2.70× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $37.39 53.42 coins | 1.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.84× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $25.70 36.72 coins | 4.4% | 5 | 7.4 | 0.68× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) Hidden $128 183 coins $564 806 coins 4.40x 2026-11-07 16:21 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=fresh)

[★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) Hidden $128 182 coins $133 190 coins 1.04x 2026-11-10 17:20 UTC

[XM1014 | Frost Borre (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-frost-borre-minimal-wear) Hidden $128 182 coins $93.10 133 coins 0.73x 2026-11-10 17:20 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) Hidden $128 182 coins $65.46 93.51 coins 0.51x 2026-11-10 17:20 UTC

[MP9 | Stained Glass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-factory-new) Hidden $128 182 coins $132 189 coins 1.04x 2026-11-10 17:20 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) Hidden $128 182 coins $65.46 93.51 coins 0.51x 2026-11-10 17:20 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) [Lars](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lars) $128 182 coins $70.70 101 coins 0.55x 2026-11-10 17:20 UTC

[Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) Hidden $128 183 coins $412 588 coins 3.21x 2026-11-07 16:22 UTC

[AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) [sar haozar](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/sar%20haozar) $128 183 coins $26.50 37.86 coins 0.21x 2026-11-07 16:22 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) Hidden $128 183 coins $564 806 coins 4.40x 2026-11-07 16:21 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) [sar haozar](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/sar%20haozar) $128 183 coins $66.14 94.48 coins 0.52x 2026-11-07 16:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $128 | 90.91% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $127 | 90.91% | 22 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $128 | 90.91% | 22 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 47.1% covert 17.2% extraordinary 0.1% epic 0.4% restricted 7.0% mil spec 5.0% industrial 23.2% best hit $564 (4.40x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt