--- title: "Fugitive case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Fugitive ($6.99) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 19 items with odds, observed 87.95% over 5,188 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fugitive rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Fugitive](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fugitive) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Fugitive A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fugitive?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fugitive?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fugitive) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fugitive?window=all) Price · $6.99 · 9.99 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $6.36 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.95% · 5,188 openings, odds method Variance · 6.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 88.51% ±16.09 889 openings 7 days · 86.87% ±7.14 4,513 openings 30 days · 87.95% ±6.66 5,188 openings since tracking started · 87.95% ±6.66 5,188 openings 72.0% 88.8% 105.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fugitive?window=24h) | 889 | 88.51% ±16.1 | −0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fugitive?window=7d) | 4,513 | 86.87% ±7.14 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fugitive) | 5,188 | 87.95% ±6.66 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fugitive?window=all) | 5,188 | 87.95% ±6.66 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,198 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [P250 \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $260 371 coins | 4.1% | 2 | 5.2 | 0.38× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $133 190 coins | 4.2% | 16 | 10.4 | 1.54× | | [FAMAS \| Styx (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $98.00 140 coins | 30.8% | 91 | 104.0 | 0.88× | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $41.85 59.78 coins | 2.0% | 14 | 15.6 | 0.90× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $19.11 27.3 coins | 6.0% | 111 | 104.0 | 1.07× | | [P2000 \| Space Race (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $15.42 22.03 coins | 7.3% | 174 | 155.9 | 1.12× | | [XM1014 \| Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $10.85 15.5 coins | 6.8% | 190 | 207.9 | 0.91× | | [P250 \| Red Rock (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $10.71 15.3 coins | 5.1% | 163 | 155.9 | 1.05× | | [Nova \| Bloomstick (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $10.16 14.52 coins | 4.8% | 154 | 155.9 | 0.99× | | [P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $8.86 12.66 coins | 4.2% | 154 | 155.9 | 0.99× | | [MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $6.65 9.5 coins | 3.1% | 168 | 155.9 | 1.08× | | [P250 \| Contamination (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contamination-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $5.24 7.48 coins | 4.9% | 328 | 311.9 | 1.05× | | [P90 \| Schematic (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-schematic-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $4.29 6.13 coins | 2.0% | 146 | 155.9 | 0.94× | | [AWP \| Mortis (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $3.11 4.44 coins | 3.4% | 342 | 363.9 | 0.94× | | [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $1.74 2.49 coins | 1.9% | 383 | 363.9 | 1.05× | | [UMP-45 \| Mechanism (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mechanism-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $1.43 2.05 coins | 1.4% | 342 | 311.9 | 1.10× | | [P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $1.24 1.77 coins | 2.9% | 803 | 779.7 | 1.03× | | [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-field-tested) | 17.4% | $1.06 1.51 coins | 2.9% | 863 | 904.5 | 0.95× | | [P90 \| Module (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-module-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.92 1.31 coins | 2.2% | 754 | 779.7 | 0.97× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=fugitive) [P90 | Module (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-module-field-tested) Hidden $6.99 9.99 coins $0.92 1.31 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [P90 | Module (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-module-field-tested) Hidden $6.99 9.99 coins $0.92 1.31 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [P90 | Schematic (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-schematic-well-worn) Hidden $6.99 9.99 coins $4.29 6.13 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [P90 | Schematic (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-schematic-well-worn) [Golf](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Golf) $6.99 9.99 coins $4.29 6.13 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [P90 | Module (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-module-field-tested) Hidden $6.99 9.99 coins $0.92 1.31 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [P250 | Red Rock (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-well-worn) Hidden $6.99 9.99 coins $10.71 15.3 coins 1.53x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [AWP | Mortis (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-battle-scarred) [Solatyre](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Solatyre) $6.99 9.99 coins $3.11 4.44 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [P90 | Chopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-minimal-wear) [dropix](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/dropix) $6.99 9.99 coins $1.24 1.77 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [P90 | Module (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-module-field-tested) [BRÄTT \<3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BR%C3%84TT%20%3C3) $6.99 9.99 coins $0.92 1.31 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [P90 | Module (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-module-field-tested) [sbears](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/sbears) $6.99 9.99 coins $0.92 1.31 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $6.99 | 90.91% | 19 | | 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $7.01 | 90.92% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $7.01 | 90.88% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $7.12 | 90.95% | 19 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $7.15 | 90.94% | 19 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $7.16 | 90.92% | 19 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.13 | 90.93% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed mil spec 18.1% covert 0.5% restricted 47.4% classified 18.0% consumer 4.0% industrial 12.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt