--- title: "Fuzzy case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Fuzzy ($34.35) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 16 items with odds, observed 93.78% over 1,668 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fuzzy rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Fuzzy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fuzzy) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Fuzzy A case on CSGORoll (60%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fuzzy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fuzzy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fuzzy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fuzzy?window=all) Price · $34.35 · 49.07 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $31.23 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.78% · 1,668 openings, odds method Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 63.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 56 openings · below min 7 days · 98.81% ±7.68 1,278 openings 30 days · 93.78% ±6.71 1,668 openings since tracking started · 93.78% ±6.71 1,668 openings 54.0% 91.8% 129.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fuzzy?window=24h) | 56 | 91.80% ±37.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fuzzy?window=7d) | 1,278 | 98.81% ±7.68 | +2.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fuzzy) | 1,668 | 93.78% ±6.71 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/fuzzy?window=all) | 1,668 | 93.78% ±6.71 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,671 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $582 832 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $389 555 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $193 276 coins | 3.1% | 4 | 8.4 | 0.48× | | [Sticker \| COLDYY1 (Gold) \| London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-coldyy1-gold-london-2018) | 1 in 17 | $181 259 coins | 34.8% | 112 | 100.3 | 1.12× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $174 248 coins | 0.8% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.60× | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $108 154 coins | 5.2% | 22 | 25.1 | 0.88× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $103 147 coins | 1.0% | 8 | 5.0 | 1.60× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $98.70 141 coins | 3.2% | 18 | 16.7 | 1.08× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $61.94 88.49 coins | 4.0% | 33 | 33.4 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $59.91 85.58 coins | 15.3% | 150 | 133.7 | 1.12× | | [Five-SeveN \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $54.19 77.42 coins | 6.1% | 68 | 58.5 | 1.16× | | [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $43.77 62.53 coins | 14.0% | 158 | 167.1 | 0.95× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $38.21 54.58 coins | 4.3% | 51 | 58.5 | 0.87× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $34.22 48.88 coins | 3.8% | 49 | 58.5 | 0.84× | | [P2000 \| Red FragCam (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | $2.72 3.88 coins | 2.6% | 488 | 501.3 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Handgun (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-handgun-well-worn) | 30.0% | $1.07 1.53 coins | 1.0% | 506 | 501.3 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=fuzzy) [P2000 | Red FragCam (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-minimal-wear) Hidden $34.35 49.07 coins $2.72 3.88 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-handgun-well-worn) Hidden $34.35 49.07 coins $1.07 1.53 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-handgun-well-worn) Hidden $34.35 49.07 coins $1.07 1.53 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [P2000 | Red FragCam (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-minimal-wear) Hidden $34.35 49.07 coins $2.72 3.88 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:24 UTC [P2000 | Red FragCam (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-minimal-wear) Hidden $34.35 49.07 coins $2.72 3.88 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:05 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-handgun-well-worn) Hidden $34.35 49.07 coins $1.07 1.53 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [P2000 | Red FragCam (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-minimal-wear) [Tyrone](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Tyrone) $34.35 49.07 coins $2.72 3.88 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 11:45 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-handgun-well-worn) [Tyrone](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Tyrone) $34.35 49.07 coins $1.07 1.53 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:42 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-handgun-well-worn) Hidden $34.35 49.07 coins $1.07 1.53 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:37 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-stained-minimal-wear) [Jocke.1337(eliiite)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jocke.1337%28eliiite%29) $34.35 49.07 coins $61.94 88.49 coins 1.80x 2026-11-11 09:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $34.35 | 90.91% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $34.47 | 90.91% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $35.41 | 90.90% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $35.41 | 90.92% | 16 | | 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $35.34 | 90.91% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $35.37 | 90.91% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 11.2% classified 10.5% extraordinary 13.3% restricted 31.5% industrial 3.5% mil spec 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt