--- title: "Galaxy case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Galaxy ($115.13) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 16 items with odds, observed 92.80% over 640 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/galaxy rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Galaxy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/galaxy) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Galaxy A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/galaxy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/galaxy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/galaxy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/galaxy?window=all) Price · $115.13 · 164 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $104.66 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.80% · 640 openings, odds method Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 81 openings · below min 7 days · 90.88% ±11.05 522 openings 30 days · 92.80% ±10.00 640 openings since tracking started · 92.80% ±10.00 640 openings 55.0% 83.3% 111.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/galaxy?window=24h) | 81 | 83.19% ±27.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/galaxy?window=7d) | 522 | 90.88% ±11.0 | −0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/galaxy) | 640 | 92.80% ±10.00 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/galaxy?window=all) | 640 | 92.80% ±10.00 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 640 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $947 1,353 coins | 1.4% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $918 1,312 coins | 0.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 200 | $751 1,073 coins | 3.6% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.25× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $643 918 coins | 6.1% | 6 | 6.4 | 0.94× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $620 886 coins | 4.7% | 9 | 5.1 | 1.76× | | [★ Karambit \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $509 727 coins | 7.3% | 11 | 9.6 | 1.15× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 47 | $426 609 coins | 8.8% | 10 | 13.8 | 0.73× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $307 438 coins | 0.9% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.56× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-jaguar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $284 406 coins | 16.3% | 34 | 38.4 | 0.89× | | [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $229 327 coins | 7.7% | 28 | 22.4 | 1.25× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $216 308 coins | 9.3% | 21 | 28.8 | 0.73× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $134 191 coins | 3.0% | 18 | 15.0 | 1.20× | | [M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) | 17.0% | $115 165 coins | 18.8% | 111 | 108.8 | 1.02× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-minimal-wear) | 18.0% | $49.00 70 coins | 8.4% | 106 | 115.2 | 0.92× | | [AUG \| Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) | 19.0% | $11.80 16.85 coins | 2.1% | 123 | 121.6 | 1.01× | | [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 23.2% | $3.71 5.3 coins | 0.8% | 154 | 148.2 | 1.04× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) Hidden $112 160 coins $981 1,402 coins 8.76x 2026-11-03 11:35 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) Hidden $112 160 coins $926 1,323 coins 8.26x 2026-11-07 02:41 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $112 160 coins $754 1,077 coins 6.73x 2026-11-07 03:47 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $112 160 coins $754 1,077 coins 6.73x 2026-11-07 02:57 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $112 160 coins $754 1,077 coins 6.73x 2026-11-06 12:43 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $115 164 coins $751 1,073 coins 6.52x 2026-11-10 14:22 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $112 160 coins $655 935 coins 5.84x 2026-11-07 02:32 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $112 160 coins $655 935 coins 5.84x 2026-11-07 01:03 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $112 160 coins $655 935 coins 5.84x 2026-11-05 13:42 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $112 160 coins $655 935 coins 5.84x 2026-11-04 15:54 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=galaxy) [AK-47 | Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) Hidden $115 164 coins $3.71 5.3 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) [User#89](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%2389) $115 164 coins $115 165 coins 1.00x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC [AUG | Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) [Klass 2](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Klass%202) $115 164 coins $11.80 16.85 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 11:43 UTC [AUG | Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) Hidden $115 164 coins $11.80 16.85 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 11:42 UTC [Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-minimal-wear) [Klass 2](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Klass%202) $115 164 coins $49.00 70 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 11:41 UTC [AUG | Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) Hidden $115 164 coins $11.80 16.85 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 11:33 UTC [M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) Hidden $115 164 coins $115 165 coins 1.00x 2026-11-11 09:44 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-jaguar-minimal-wear) [☯♥㊛](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E2%98%AF%E2%99%A5%E3%8A%9B) $115 164 coins $284 406 coins 2.47x 2026-11-11 09:38 UTC [Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-minimal-wear) Hidden $115 164 coins $49.00 70 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 08:00 UTC [M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) Hidden $115 164 coins $115 165 coins 1.00x 2026-11-11 05:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $115 | 90.91% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $114 | 90.91% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $112 | 90.91% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 20.2% extraordinary 2.6% restricted 40.2% classified 18.0% mil spec 19.0% best hit $981 (8.76x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt