--- title: "Garbage case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Garbage ($9.51) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 11 items with odds, observed 90.84% over 2,523 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/garbage rendered: 2026-11-11T14:33Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Garbage](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/garbage) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Garbage A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/garbage?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/garbage?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/garbage) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/garbage?window=all) Price · $9.51 · 13.58 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $8.64 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.84% · 2,523 openings, odds method Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 35.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 53.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 97.26% ±15.06 277 openings 7 days · 89.60% ±5.74 1,912 openings 30 days · 90.84% ±5.00 2,523 openings since tracking started · 90.84% ±5.00 2,523 openings 81.5% 97.2% 113.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/garbage?window=24h) | 277 | 97.26% ±15.1 | +0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/garbage?window=7d) | 1,912 | 89.60% ±5.74 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/garbage) | 2,523 | 90.84% ±5.00 | −0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/garbage?window=all) | 2,523 | 90.84% ±5.00 | −0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,523 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $328 468 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $105 150 coins | 1.2% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.19× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $76.30 109 coins | 4.4% | 11 | 12.6 | 0.87× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $72.10 103 coins | 12.5% | 38 | 37.8 | 1.00× | | [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $33.31 47.59 coins | 7.7% | 58 | 50.5 | 1.15× | | [AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $19.03 27.19 coins | 11.0% | 119 | 126.2 | 0.94× | | [Tec-9 \| Hades (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-hades-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $13.29 18.98 coins | 12.3% | 202 | 201.8 | 1.00× | | [P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-well-worn) | 18.0% | $11.44 16.34 coins | 23.8% | 466 | 454.1 | 1.03× | | [Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-copper-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $10.79 15.42 coins | 13.7% | 263 | 277.5 | 0.95× | | [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-battle-scarred) | 22.0% | $3.37 4.81 coins | 8.6% | 561 | 555.1 | 1.01× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-field-tested) | 31.9% | $1.17 1.67 coins | 4.3% | 802 | 804.6 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=garbage) [CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-field-tested) Hidden $9.51 13.58 coins $1.17 1.67 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-field-tested) Hidden $9.51 13.58 coins $1.17 1.67 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-field-tested) Hidden $9.51 13.58 coins $1.17 1.67 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [MP5-SD | Phosphor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-battle-scarred) [Dab](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dab) $9.51 13.58 coins $3.37 4.81 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [MP5-SD | Phosphor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-battle-scarred) [Kisu :)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kisu%20%3A%29) $9.51 13.58 coins $3.37 4.81 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-field-tested) Hidden $9.51 13.58 coins $1.17 1.67 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-copper-galaxy-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.51 13.58 coins $10.79 15.42 coins 1.14x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [P250 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-well-worn) Hidden $9.51 13.58 coins $11.44 16.34 coins 1.20x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-field-tested) Hidden $9.51 13.58 coins $1.17 1.67 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 11:03 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-field-tested) Hidden $9.51 13.58 coins $1.17 1.67 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 11:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $9.51 | 90.90% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $9.51 | 90.90% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $9.59 | 90.90% | 11 | | 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $9.59 | 90.92% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.57 | 90.93% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.1% classified 47.0% industrial 8.0% restricted 42.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt