---
title: "Geisha case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Geisha ($34.57) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 20 items with odds, observed 78.39% over 765 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/geisha
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:21Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Geisha](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/geisha)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Geisha

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/geisha?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/geisha?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/geisha) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/geisha?window=all)

Price · $34.57 · 49.39 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $31.43 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 78.39% · 765 openings, odds method

Variance · 15.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 58 openings · below min

7 days · 77.79% ±29.16 694 openings

30 days · 78.39% ±27.77 765 openings

since tracking started · 78.39% ±27.77 765 openings

1.0% 102.3% 203.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/geisha?window=24h) | 58 | 102.22% ±100.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/geisha?window=7d) | 694 | 77.79% ±29.2 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/geisha) | 765 | 78.39% ±27.8 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/geisha?window=all) | 765 | 78.39% ±27.8 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 765 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 4,167 | $6,930 9,900 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 2,778 | $3,622 5,175 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $505 721 coins | 0.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $462 660 coins | 2.2% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.87× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $430 614 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 909 | $378 540 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 333 | $293 418 coins | 2.8% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.87× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $211 301 coins | 4.7% | 2 | 5.4 | 0.37× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $209 298 coins | 5.0% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.05× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-kukri-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $148 211 coins | 4.7% | 2 | 7.7 | 0.26× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 56 | $132 188 coins | 7.5% | 18 | 13.8 | 1.31× |
| [★ Falchion Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife) | 1 in 35 | $88.90 127 coins | 8.1% | 24 | 22.0 | 1.09× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $74.90 107 coins | 10.7% | 41 | 34.4 | 1.19× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $54.58 77.97 coins | 7.8% | 35 | 34.4 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $39.73 56.76 coins | 8.8% | 46 | 53.6 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $33.30 47.57 coins | 8.5% | 53 | 61.2 | 0.87× |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 222 | $15.30 21.85 coins | 0.2% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.45× |
| [Sticker \| Fnatic \| Katowice 2015 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-katowice-2015) | 16.2% | $13.43 19.19 coins | 6.9% | 123 | 123.9 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| Dark Filigree (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-factory-new) | 22.5% | $7.37 10.53 coins | 5.3% | 189 | 172.1 | 1.10× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) | 29.0% | $4.79 6.85 coins | 4.4% | 217 | 221.8 | 0.98× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) [gaxon](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/gaxon) $34.64 49.48 coins $515 736 coins 14.87x 2026-11-04 14:07 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=geisha)

[Sticker | Fnatic | Katowice 2015 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-katowice-2015) Hidden $34.57 49.39 coins $13.43 19.19 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 06:18 UTC

[Sticker | Fnatic | Katowice 2015 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-katowice-2015) Hidden $34.57 49.39 coins $13.43 19.19 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 06:18 UTC

[P250 | Dark Filigree (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-factory-new) Hidden $34.57 49.39 coins $7.37 10.53 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 06:18 UTC

[P250 | Dark Filigree (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-factory-new) Hidden $34.57 49.39 coins $7.37 10.53 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 06:18 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife) Hidden $34.57 49.39 coins $88.90 127 coins 2.57x 2026-11-11 06:18 UTC

[StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) [Tiny Tim.CsgoRoll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Tiny%20Tim.CsgoRoll.com) $34.57 49.39 coins $33.30 47.57 coins 0.96x 2026-11-11 06:18 UTC

[SG 553 | Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) Hidden $34.57 49.39 coins $4.79 6.85 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 06:11 UTC

[SG 553 | Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) Hidden $34.57 49.39 coins $4.79 6.85 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 06:11 UTC

[P250 | Dark Filigree (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-factory-new) Hidden $34.57 49.39 coins $7.37 10.53 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 06:11 UTC

[P250 | Dark Filigree (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-factory-new) Hidden $34.57 49.39 coins $7.37 10.53 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 06:11 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $34.57 | 90.92% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $34.38 | 90.90% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $34.64 | 90.91% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 23.8% extraordinary 0.1% restricted 37.0% mil spec 0.4% high 16.2% industrial 22.5% best hit $515 (14.87x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt