--- title: "Gem Hunter case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Gem Hunter ($1.32) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.88% from 8 items with odds, observed 89.97% over 38.5K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gem-hunter rendered: 2026-11-11T13:20Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Gem Hunter](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gem-hunter) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Gem Hunter A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gem-hunter?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gem-hunter?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gem-hunter) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gem-hunter?window=all) Price · $1.32 · 1.88 coins Advertised RTP · 90.88% · EV $1.20 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.97% · 38.5K openings, odds method Variance · 9.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 41.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 58.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 93.37% ±8.89 4,780 openings 7 days · 89.20% ±3.35 32.2K openings 30 days · 89.97% ±3.04 38.5K openings since tracking started · 89.97% ±3.04 38.5K openings 84.0% 93.5% 103.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gem-hunter?window=24h) | 4,780 | 93.37% ±8.89 | +0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gem-hunter?window=7d) | 32.2K | 89.20% ±3.35 | −1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gem-hunter) | 38.5K | 89.97% ±3.04 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gem-hunter?window=all) | 38.5K | 89.97% ±3.04 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38.6K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000,000 | $7,294 10,420 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000,000 | $6,125 8,750 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000,000 | $5,978 8,540 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sand-dune-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $32.82 46.89 coins | 8.2% | 108 | 115.8 | 0.93× | | [Nova \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $7.21 10.3 coins | 3.0% | 193 | 193.0 | 1.00× | | [SSG 08 \| Red Stone (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-red-stone-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $3.90 5.57 coins | 3.3% | 370 | 386.0 | 0.96× | | [Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-minimal-wear) | 40.0% | $2.32 3.31 coins | 77.5% | 15,403 | 15439.6 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-minimal-wear) | 58.2% | $0.16 0.23 coins | 7.8% | 22,525 | 22464.6 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=gem-hunter) [Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.32 1.88 coins $2.32 3.31 coins 1.76x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.32 1.88 coins $2.32 3.31 coins 1.76x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.32 1.88 coins $0.16 0.23 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-minimal-wear) [Tunska](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Tunska) $1.32 1.88 coins $2.32 3.31 coins 1.76x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.32 1.88 coins $0.16 0.23 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-minimal-wear) [Tunska](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Tunska) $1.32 1.88 coins $0.16 0.23 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.32 1.88 coins $2.32 3.31 coins 1.76x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.32 1.88 coins $0.16 0.23 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.32 1.88 coins $0.16 0.23 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.32 1.88 coins $2.32 3.31 coins 1.76x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $1.32 | 90.88% | 8 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.36 | 90.75% | 8 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $1.37 | 90.82% | 8 | | 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $1.37 | 90.82% | 8 | | 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $1.40 | 90.95% | 8 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.50 | 90.79% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% industrial 0.3% restricted 0.5% consumer 1.0% mil spec 98.2% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.88 on average: an expected loss of $9.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt