--- title: "Genesis case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Genesis ($4,123.27) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 20 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/genesis rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Genesis](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/genesis) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Genesis A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/genesis?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/genesis?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/genesis) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/genesis?window=all) Price · $4,123.27 · 5,890 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $3,748.42 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/genesis?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/genesis?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/genesis) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/genesis?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) 4x Reason (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new-4x-reason-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $98K 140,000 coins | 7.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 250 | $53.5K 76,380 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new-4x-titan-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $31.5K 45,000 coins | 6.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [EMS Katowice 2014 Legends other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-legends) | 1 in 200 | $25K 35,730 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new-4x-titan-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $24.5K 35,000 coins | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 143 | $20.8K 29,650 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 29 | $9,342 13,345 coins | 8.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 25 | $7,455 10,650 coins | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $7,297 10,425 coins | 9.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 182 | $6,808 9,725 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| HellRaisers (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 33 | $6,780 9,685 coins | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $6,657 9,510 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 50 | $5,978 8,540 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) | 1 in 14 | $3,164 4,520 coins | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 15 | $2,513 3,590 coins | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 10.0% | $2,167 3,095 coins | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 13 | $1,890 2,700 coins | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-factory-new) | 20.0% | $865 1,235 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 12.0% | $799 1,141 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 14.0% | $711 1,016 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=genesis) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4,123 | 90.91% | 20 | | 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $4,212 | 90.91% | 20 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4,212 | 90.91% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 2.3% base 0.5% remarkable 3.7% covert 61.6% contraband 5.0% high 7.0% extraordinary 20.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt