---
title: "Genius case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Genius ($14.25) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 17 items with odds, observed 88.78% over 2,586 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/genius
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Genius](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/genius)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Genius

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/genius?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/genius?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/genius) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/genius?window=all)

Price · $14.25 · 20.36 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $12.95 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.78% · 2,586 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 26 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 68.19% ±31.25 305 openings

7 days · 89.30% ±11.87 2,138 openings

30 days · 88.78% ±10.80 2,586 openings

since tracking started · 88.78% ±10.80 2,586 openings

36.5% 69.3% 102.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/genius?window=24h) | 305 | 68.19% ±31.2 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/genius?window=7d) | 2,138 | 89.30% ±11.9 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/genius) | 2,586 | 88.78% ±10.8 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/genius?window=all) | 2,586 | 88.78% ±10.8 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,586 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $557 795 coins | 1.7% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $326 465 coins | 6.3% | 9 | 6.5 | 1.39× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-factory-new) | 1 in 1,111 | $321 458 coins | 2.2% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.29× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $320 457 coins | 6.2% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.24× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $226 323 coins | 20.9% | 26 | 31.0 | 0.84× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $113 161 coins | 17.4% | 49 | 51.7 | 0.95× |
| [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 32 | $46.87 66.96 coins | 11.2% | 72 | 80.2 | 0.90× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $46.68 66.69 coins | 7.9% | 44 | 56.9 | 0.77× |
| [Sticker \| dexter (Gold) \| Rio 2022 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dexter-gold-rio-2022) | 1 in 21 | $10.19 14.55 coins | 3.7% | 136 | 121.5 | 1.12× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $10.15 14.5 coins | 3.4% | 109 | 113.8 | 0.96× |
| [Winter Offensive Case Key other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/winter-offensive-case-key) | 1 in 17 | $7.70 11 coins | 3.6% | 147 | 155.2 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-teclu-burner-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $7.41 10.59 coins | 2.9% | 145 | 129.3 | 1.12× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $6.61 9.45 coins | 4.5% | 233 | 228.9 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| The Pro (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-the-pro-foil) | 12.5% | $2.93 4.19 coins | 2.8% | 315 | 323.3 | 0.97× |
| [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro \| London 2018 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-london-2018) | 18.0% | $1.87 2.67 coins | 2.6% | 486 | 465.5 | 1.04× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $1.15 1.65 coins | 0.9% | 260 | 256.0 | 1.02× |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-well-worn) | 21.5% | $1.03 1.47 coins | 1.7% | 543 | 556.5 | 0.98× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $14.63 20.9 coins $582 831 coins 39.76x 2026-11-07 01:21 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=genius)

[Sticker | Virtus.Pro | London 2018 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-london-2018) Hidden $14.25 20.36 coins $1.87 2.67 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[Sticker | The Pro (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-the-pro-foil) Hidden $14.25 20.36 coins $2.93 4.19 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[Negev | Power Loader (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-well-worn) Hidden $14.25 20.36 coins $1.03 1.47 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[Sticker | Virtus.Pro | London 2018 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-london-2018) Hidden $14.25 20.36 coins $1.87 2.67 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[Negev | Power Loader (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-well-worn) Hidden $14.25 20.36 coins $1.03 1.47 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-factory-new) [Jarza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jarza) $14.25 20.36 coins $10.15 14.5 coins 0.71x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[Sticker | The Pro (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-the-pro-foil) Hidden $14.25 20.36 coins $2.93 4.19 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[Winter Offensive Case Key other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/winter-offensive-case-key) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $14.25 20.36 coins $7.70 11 coins 0.54x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[Sticker | The Pro (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-the-pro-foil) Hidden $14.25 20.36 coins $2.93 4.19 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-minimal-wear) Hidden $14.25 20.36 coins $1.15 1.65 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $14.25 | 90.89% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $14.31 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $14.63 | 90.92% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 3.9% extraordinary 6.8% remarkable 3.1% #8847ff 4.4% base 6.0% restricted 35.4% exotic 12.5% high 18.0% uncommon 9.9% best hit $582 (39.76x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt