---
title: "Geode case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Geode ($42.85) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 23 items with odds, observed 97.69% over 315 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/geode
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:06Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Geode](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/geode)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Geode

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/geode?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/geode?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/geode) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/geode?window=all)

Price · $42.85 · 61.21 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $38.95 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 97.69% · 315 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 6 openings · below min

7 days · 98.12% ±19.04 266 openings

30 days · 97.69% ±17.50 315 openings

since tracking started · 97.69% ±17.50 315 openings

-0.5% 123.0% 246.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/geode?window=24h) | 6 | 119.46% ±126.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/geode?window=7d) | 266 | 98.12% ±19.0 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/geode) | 315 | 97.69% ±17.5 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/geode?window=all) | 315 | 97.69% ±17.5 | +0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 315 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,167 3,095 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $568 812 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $465 664 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 400 | $388 554 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 400 | $385 550 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 286 | $258 369 coins | 2.3% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.81× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $246 352 coins | 2.2% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $204 292 coins | 3.1% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.06× |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $202 288 coins | 31.1% | 22 | 18.9 | 1.16× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 200 | $193 275 coins | 2.5% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $142 203 coins | 9.1% | 14 | 7.9 | 1.78× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $139 199 coins | 5.0% | 8 | 4.4 | 1.81× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $59.09 84.41 coins | 10.6% | 18 | 22.1 | 0.82× |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $47.80 68.28 coins | 7.4% | 19 | 18.9 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $29.48 42.11 coins | 5.3% | 18 | 22.1 | 0.82× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $22.48 32.12 coins | 3.5% | 20 | 18.9 | 1.06× |
| [Arno The Overgrown \| Guerrilla Warfare agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/arno-the-overgrown-guerrilla-warfare) | 1 in 17 | $11.30 16.14 coins | 1.7% | 20 | 18.9 | 1.06× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $9.92 14.17 coins | 2.2% | 23 | 27.4 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $9.23 13.18 coins | 2.0% | 27 | 26.8 | 1.01× |
| [Tec-9 \| Titanium Bit (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-titanium-bit-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $8.14 11.63 coins | 2.1% | 27 | 31.5 | 0.86× |
| [Sticker \| Dead Eye (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dead-eye-holo) | 1 in 12 | $6.57 9.39 coins | 1.4% | 27 | 26.8 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 13.0% | $3.71 5.3 coins | 1.2% | 45 | 41.0 | 1.10× |
| [MP9 \| Music Box (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-music-box-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $1.99 2.85 coins | 0.4% | 21 | 22.1 | 0.95× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=geode)

[Sticker | Dead Eye (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dead-eye-holo) Hidden $42.85 61.21 coins $6.57 9.39 coins 0.15x 2026-11-10 23:47 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) Hidden $42.85 61.21 coins $59.09 84.41 coins 1.38x 2026-11-10 23:47 UTC

[M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) Hidden $42.85 61.21 coins $202 288 coins 4.71x 2026-11-10 23:47 UTC

[Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-titanium-bit-minimal-wear) Hidden $42.85 61.21 coins $8.14 11.63 coins 0.19x 2026-11-10 23:47 UTC

[StatTrak™ Galil AR | Blue Titanium (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) Hidden $42.85 61.21 coins $9.23 13.18 coins 0.22x 2026-11-10 23:47 UTC

[Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) [csgoroll prayer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/csgoroll%20prayer) $42.85 61.21 coins $22.48 32.12 coins 0.52x 2026-11-10 23:47 UTC

[MP9 | Music Box (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-music-box-well-worn) Hidden $42.85 61.21 coins $1.99 2.85 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 11:59 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) Hidden $42.85 61.21 coins $3.71 5.3 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 11:59 UTC

[M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-well-worn) Hidden $42.85 61.21 coins $9.92 14.17 coins 0.23x 2026-11-10 11:59 UTC

[Arno The Overgrown | Guerrilla Warfare agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/arno-the-overgrown-guerrilla-warfare) [DeeDee♥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DeeDee%E2%99%A5) $42.85 61.21 coins $11.30 16.14 coins 0.26x 2026-11-10 11:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $42.85 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $42.92 | 90.90% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $43.18 | 90.91% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 18.3% legendary 0.4% classified 14.7% extraordinary 0.6% restricted 29.0% mil spec 22.5% superior 6.0% remarkable 8.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt