---
title: "Ghostly case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Ghostly ($97.48) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 20 items with odds, observed 86.82% over 208 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ghostly
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Ghostly](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ghostly)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Ghostly

A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ghostly?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ghostly?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ghostly) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ghostly?window=all)

Price · $97.48 · 139 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $88.62 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.82% · 208 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 31 openings · below min

7 days · 88.88% ±23.23 176 openings

30 days · 86.82% ±21.37 208 openings

since tracking started · 86.82% ±21.37 208 openings

26.5% 82.5% 138.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ghostly?window=24h) | 31 | 82.30% ±55.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ghostly?window=7d) | 176 | 88.88% ±23.2 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ghostly) | 208 | 86.82% ±21.4 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ghostly?window=all) | 208 | 86.82% ±21.4 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 208 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,802 2,575 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $1,229 1,755 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $952 1,360 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP7 \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $820 1,171 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $631 902 coins | 7.1% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.44× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $549 784 coins | 9.3% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.96× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $366 523 coins | 8.3% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.72× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $334 477 coins | 11.3% | 4 | 6.2 | 0.64× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $310 443 coins | 8.7% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $251 358 coins | 9.9% | 10 | 7.3 | 1.37× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $173 247 coins | 7.8% | 10 | 8.3 | 1.20× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $144 206 coins | 7.3% | 16 | 9.4 | 1.71× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $139 199 coins | 7.9% | 10 | 10.4 | 0.96× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $94.50 135 coins | 6.9% | 17 | 13.5 | 1.26× |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $65.65 93.78 coins | 4.1% | 14 | 11.4 | 1.22× |
| [Sticker \| Perry (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-perry-holo) | 1 in 13 | $2.83 4.04 coins | 0.3% | 16 | 16.6 | 0.96× |
| [Sticker \| Stan (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-stan-holo) | 14.0% | $2.21 3.16 coins | 0.3% | 33 | 29.1 | 1.13× |
| [Sticker \| Joan (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-joan-holo) | 14.0% | $1.92 2.74 coins | 0.3% | 27 | 29.1 | 0.93× |
| [Sticker \| Jack (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-jack-holo) | 10.0% | $1.57 2.24 coins | 0.2% | 19 | 20.8 | 0.91× |
| [Sticker \| Viggo (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-viggo-holo) | 14.0% | $1.53 2.19 coins | 0.2% | 20 | 29.1 | 0.69× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) Hidden $98.60 141 coins $645 921 coins 6.54x 2026-11-06 15:17 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) Hidden $98.60 141 coins $645 921 coins 6.54x 2026-11-06 11:18 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) Hidden $98.60 141 coins $645 921 coins 6.54x 2026-11-05 17:09 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-damascus-steel-well-worn) Hidden $98.60 141 coins $566 809 coins 5.74x 2026-11-07 08:46 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-damascus-steel-well-worn) [coco](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/coco) $98.60 141 coins $566 809 coins 5.74x 2026-11-06 11:15 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-damascus-steel-well-worn) Hidden $97.48 139 coins $549 784 coins 5.63x 2026-11-11 01:54 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=ghostly)

[Sticker | Stan (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-stan-holo) [Pontus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pontus) $97.48 139 coins $2.21 3.16 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 01:54 UTC

[Sticker | Perry (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-perry-holo) Hidden $97.48 139 coins $2.83 4.04 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 01:54 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-damascus-steel-well-worn) Hidden $97.48 139 coins $549 784 coins 5.63x 2026-11-11 01:54 UTC

[Sticker | Jack (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-jack-holo) [Pontus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pontus) $97.48 139 coins $1.57 2.24 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 01:53 UTC

[Sticker | Jack (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-jack-holo) Hidden $97.48 139 coins $1.57 2.24 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 01:53 UTC

[Sticker | Perry (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-perry-holo) Hidden $97.48 139 coins $2.83 4.04 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 01:53 UTC

[Sticker | Jack (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-jack-holo) Hidden $97.48 139 coins $1.57 2.24 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 01:53 UTC

[Sticker | Jack (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-jack-holo) Hidden $97.48 139 coins $1.57 2.24 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 16:32 UTC

[Sticker | Perry (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-perry-holo) Hidden $97.48 139 coins $2.83 4.04 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 16:32 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Stained (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-stained-factory-new) Hidden $97.48 139 coins $251 358 coins 2.57x 2026-11-10 16:32 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $97.48 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $97.74 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $98.60 | 90.91% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 2.5% covert 31.2% mil spec 0.8% classified 5.5% Mythical 8.0% remarkable 52.0% best hit $645 (6.54x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt