---
title: "Gilded Dream case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Gilded Dream ($38.19) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 18 items with odds, observed 89.60% over 6,082 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gilded-dream
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Gilded Dream](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gilded-dream)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Gilded Dream

A case on CSGORoll (15%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gilded-dream?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gilded-dream?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gilded-dream) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gilded-dream?window=all)

Price · $38.19 · 54.56 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $34.72 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.60% · 6,082 openings, odds method

Variance · 8.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 23 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.22% ±23.03 601 openings

7 days · 89.71% ±7.61 5,453 openings

30 days · 89.60% ±7.21 6,082 openings

since tracking started · 89.60% ±7.21 6,082 openings

60.5% 84.3% 108.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gilded-dream?window=24h) | 601 | 84.22% ±23.0 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gilded-dream?window=7d) | 5,453 | 89.71% ±7.61 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gilded-dream) | 6,082 | 89.60% ±7.21 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gilded-dream?window=all) | 6,082 | 89.60% ±7.21 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,082 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,761 2,515 coins | 1.0% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.64× |
| [Sticker \| captainMo (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-captainmo-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,757 2,510 coins | 2.0% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.23× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,655 2,364 coins | 0.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,295 1,850 coins | 0.7% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,146 1,637 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,058 1,512 coins | 1.2% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,018 1,454 coins | 1.2% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $937 1,339 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| DickStacy (Gold) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dickstacy-gold-katowice-2019) | 1 in 2,000 | $624 891 coins | 0.9% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.66× |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $472 675 coins | 13.6% | 58 | 60.8 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $325 464 coins | 18.7% | 135 | 121.6 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $320 457 coins | 9.2% | 47 | 60.8 | 0.77× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $296 423 coins | 17.1% | 128 | 121.6 | 1.05× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $278 397 coins | 13.8% | 109 | 104.6 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-gold-toof-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $144 206 coins | 12.5% | 180 | 182.5 | 0.99× |
| [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $50.87 72.67 coins | 5.9% | 246 | 243.3 | 1.01× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 42.5% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 2,636 | 2584.8 | 1.02× |
| [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 42.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 2,532 | 2584.8 | 0.98× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Sticker | captainMo (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-captainmo-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $38.12 54.46 coins $1,757 2,510 coins 46.09x 2026-11-07 02:57 UTC

[Sticker | captainMo (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-captainmo-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $38.12 54.46 coins $1,757 2,510 coins 46.09x 2026-11-06 19:12 UTC

[Sticker | captainMo (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-captainmo-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $38.12 54.46 coins $1,757 2,510 coins 46.09x 2026-11-05 12:31 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $38.12 54.46 coins $1,721 2,459 coins 45.15x 2026-11-05 23:01 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $38.12 54.46 coins $1,721 2,459 coins 45.15x 2026-11-05 19:59 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $38.12 54.46 coins $1,708 2,440 coins 44.80x 2026-11-07 16:34 UTC

[Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $38.19 54.56 coins $1,295 1,850 coins 33.91x 2026-11-09 22:52 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $38.19 54.56 coins $1,058 1,512 coins 27.71x 2026-11-11 01:51 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $38.12 54.46 coins $988 1,412 coins 25.93x 2026-11-04 11:20 UTC

[Sticker | DickStacy (Gold) | Katowice 2019 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dickstacy-gold-katowice-2019) Hidden $38.12 54.46 coins $636 909 coins 16.69x 2026-11-07 20:02 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=gilded-dream)

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $38.19 54.56 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:10 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $38.19 54.56 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:10 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $38.19 54.56 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:10 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $38.19 54.56 coins $278 397 coins 7.28x 2026-11-11 11:10 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $38.19 54.56 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:10 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $38.19 54.56 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:10 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $38.19 54.56 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:10 UTC

[MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) Hidden $38.19 54.56 coins $50.87 72.67 coins 1.33x 2026-11-11 11:10 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $38.19 54.56 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:07 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $38.19 54.56 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:07 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $38.19 | 90.90% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $38.27 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $38.12 | 90.90% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 5.2% extraordinary 0.1% classified 1.0% legendary 1.7% Ancient 3.0% restricted 4.0% consumer 85.0% best hit $1,757 (46.09x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt