---
title: "Glacier case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Glacier ($2.65) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.98% from 28 items with odds, observed 92.76% over 34.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/glacier
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Glacier](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/glacier)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Glacier

A case on CSGORoll (csgo), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/glacier?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/glacier?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/glacier) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/glacier?window=all)

Price · $2.65 · 3.78 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.98% · EV $2.41 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.76% · 34.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 13.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 44 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 89.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93.76% ±11.41 3,843 openings

7 days · 91.78% ±4.23 28.8K openings

30 days · 92.76% ±3.85 34.8K openings

since tracking started · 92.76% ±3.85 34.8K openings

81.5% 93.8% 106.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/glacier?window=24h) | 3,843 | 93.76% ±11.4 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/glacier?window=7d) | 28.8K | 91.78% ±4.23 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/glacier) | 34.8K | 92.76% ±3.85 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/glacier?window=all) | 34.8K | 92.76% ±3.85 | +0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $149 213 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Arctic Camo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $135 193 coins | 0.6% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.86× |
| [P90 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $115 165 coins | 14.4% | 110 | 104.6 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| Tornado (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tornado-factory-new) | 1 in 14,286 | $98.00 140 coins | 0.3% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.23× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $80.50 115 coins | 6.7% | 75 | 69.8 | 1.08× |
| [Souvenir M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $78.40 112 coins | 1.0% | 14 | 10.5 | 1.34× |
| [Souvenir FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-cyanospatter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $69.57 99.39 coins | 2.9% | 36 | 34.9 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $49.99 71.42 coins | 8.3% | 140 | 139.5 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Pathfinder (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $38.47 54.96 coins | 11.2% | 223 | 244.1 | 0.91× |
| [SSG 08 \| Tropical Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tropical-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $38.12 54.45 coins | 7.9% | 192 | 174.4 | 1.10× |
| [Souvenir USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-forest-leaves-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $19.22 27.45 coins | 0.5% | 26 | 20.9 | 1.24× |
| [Galil AR \| Winter Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-winter-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $13.22 18.89 coins | 5.5% | 343 | 348.8 | 0.98× |
| [Tec-9 \| Hades (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-hades-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $12.06 17.23 coins | 5.0% | 382 | 348.8 | 1.10× |
| [MP5-SD \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $9.55 13.64 coins | 5.9% | 520 | 523.1 | 0.99× |
| [Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Stained (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $7.94 11.35 coins | 1.8% | 178 | 191.8 | 0.93× |
| [Souvenir P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p2000-granite-marbleized-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $7.31 10.44 coins | 1.7% | 191 | 191.8 | 1.00× |
| [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Mudder (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-mudder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $6.45 9.22 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $4.61 6.59 coins | 3.8% | 649 | 697.5 | 0.93× |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $4.31 6.15 coins | 0.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Carbon Fiber (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-carbon-fiber-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $4.26 6.08 coins | 3.5% | 664 | 697.5 | 0.95× |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,111 | $3.34 4.77 coins | 0.1% | 33 | 31.4 | 1.05× |
| [MP7 \| Tall Grass (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-tall-grass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $2.22 3.17 coins | 5.5% | 2,181 | 2092.5 | 1.04× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $2.19 3.13 coins | 2.7% | 1,092 | 1046.3 | 1.04× |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Red Tire (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-red-tire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $1.38 1.97 coins | 4.6% | 2,727 | 2790.0 | 0.98× |
| [P2000 \| Grassland (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $1.06 1.51 coins | 3.1% | 2,492 | 2441.3 | 1.02× |
| [MAC-10 \| Silver (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.13 0.18 coins | 0.5% | 3,560 | 3487.5 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) | 25.0% | $0.11 0.16 coins | 1.2% | 8,640 | 8718.8 | 0.99× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Snake Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-snake-camo-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | $0.10 0.14 coins | 1.2% | 10,400 | 10462.5 | 0.99× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[G3SG1 | Arctic Camo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-factory-new) Hidden $2.65 3.78 coins $135 193 coins 51.06x 2026-11-10 16:53 UTC

[G3SG1 | Arctic Camo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-factory-new) Hidden $2.57 3.67 coins $135 193 coins 52.59x 2026-11-06 14:46 UTC

[G3SG1 | Arctic Camo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-factory-new) Hidden $2.57 3.67 coins $135 193 coins 52.59x 2026-11-04 13:59 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=glacier)

[Sawed-Off | Snake Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-snake-camo-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.65 3.78 coins $0.10 0.14 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[P2000 | Grassland (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-well-worn) Hidden $2.65 3.78 coins $1.06 1.51 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Snake Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-snake-camo-minimal-wear) [PsIcHo csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/PsIcHo%20csgoroll.com) $2.65 3.78 coins $0.10 0.14 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[P2000 | Grassland (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-well-worn) Hidden $2.65 3.78 coins $1.06 1.51 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) Hidden $2.65 3.78 coins $0.11 0.16 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[MP7 | Tall Grass (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-tall-grass-minimal-wear) [dinmor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/dinmor) $2.65 3.78 coins $2.22 3.17 coins 0.84x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Snake Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-snake-camo-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.65 3.78 coins $0.10 0.14 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[MAC-10 | Silver (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-silver-minimal-wear) [PsIcHo csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/PsIcHo%20csgoroll.com) $2.65 3.78 coins $0.13 0.18 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[Souvenir Glock-18 | Red Tire (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-red-tire-minimal-wear) [PsIcHo csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/PsIcHo%20csgoroll.com) $2.65 3.78 coins $1.38 1.97 coins 0.52x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[Souvenir Dual Berettas | Stained (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-stained-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.65 3.78 coins $7.94 11.35 coins 3.00x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.65 | 90.98% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $2.65 | 90.80% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $2.64 | 90.98% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $2.64 | 90.86% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $2.58 | 90.96% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $2.58 | 90.81% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.58 | 90.88% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $2.57 | 90.97% | 28 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.57 | 91.03% | 28 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $2.58 | 91.03% | 28 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.58 | 90.92% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed industrial 75.0% light blue 25.0% best hit $135 (51.06x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.98 on average: an expected loss of $9.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt