--- title: "Gleaming case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Gleaming ($104.28) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 14 items with odds, observed 89.75% over 16 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gleaming rendered: 2026-11-11T15:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Gleaming](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gleaming) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Gleaming A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gleaming?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gleaming?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gleaming) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gleaming?window=all) Price · $104.28 · 149 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $94.80 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.75% · 16 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 42.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 57.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 10 openings · below min 30 days · 16 openings · below min since tracking started · 16 openings · below min 28.5% 81.8% 135.0% **Small sample.** 16 openings and 6.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gleaming?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gleaming?window=7d) | 10 | 81.68% ±52.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gleaming) | 16 | 89.75% ±41.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gleaming?window=all) | 16 | 89.75% ±41.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $1,146 1,637 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,018 1,454 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $1,000 1,428 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $582 832 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $268 383 coins | 0.8% | 1 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $200 285 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [MAG-7 \| Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $164 234 coins | 15.6% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.39× | | [Sticker \| S0tF1k (Gold) \| London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-s0tf1k-gold-london-2018) | 1 in 33 | $162 231 coins | 5.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 87 | $127 181 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $126 180 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $111 159 coins | 29.4% | 4 | 4.0 | 1.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $79.10 113 coins | 10.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 25.7% | $54.89 78.42 coins | 14.9% | 6 | 4.1 | 1.46× | | [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-well-worn) | 20.0% | $41.17 58.82 coins | 8.7% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=gleaming) [Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) Hidden $104 148 coins $55.80 79.72 coins 0.54x 2026-11-07 01:59 UTC [Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) [sar haozar](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/sar%20haozar) $104 148 coins $55.80 79.72 coins 0.54x 2026-11-07 01:59 UTC [AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) Hidden $104 148 coins $109 156 coins 1.05x 2026-11-07 01:58 UTC [Galil AR | CAUTION! (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-well-worn) [sar haozar](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/sar%20haozar) $104 148 coins $41.62 59.45 coins 0.40x 2026-11-07 01:58 UTC [Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) Hidden $104 148 coins $55.80 79.72 coins 0.54x 2026-11-07 01:58 UTC [Galil AR | CAUTION! (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-well-worn) [sar haozar](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/sar%20haozar) $104 148 coins $41.62 59.45 coins 0.40x 2026-11-07 01:58 UTC [Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) Hidden $104 148 coins $55.80 79.72 coins 0.54x 2026-11-04 19:54 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) [tjablaaa:)# osas](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tjablaaa%3A%29%23%20osas) $104 148 coins $268 383 coins 2.58x 2026-11-04 19:54 UTC [AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) Hidden $104 148 coins $109 156 coins 1.05x 2026-11-04 19:53 UTC [Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) [tjablaaa:)# osas](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tjablaaa%3A%29%23%20osas) $104 148 coins $55.80 79.72 coins 0.54x 2026-11-04 19:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $104 | 90.91% | 14 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $105 | 90.91% | 14 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $104 | 90.91% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 3.3% covert 67.2% restricted 20.6% mil spec 9.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt