---
title: "Goblin case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Goblin ($39.81) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 15 items with odds, observed 92.49% over 1,309 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/goblin
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Goblin](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/goblin)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Goblin

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/goblin?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/goblin?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/goblin) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/goblin?window=all)

Price · $39.81 · 56.87 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $36.19 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.49% · 1,309 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 97.09% ±20.88 167 openings

7 days · 93.65% ±8.55 1,008 openings

30 days · 92.49% ±7.51 1,309 openings

since tracking started · 92.49% ±7.51 1,309 openings

75.5% 97.0% 118.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/goblin?window=24h) | 167 | 97.09% ±20.9 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/goblin?window=7d) | 1,008 | 93.65% ±8.55 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/goblin) | 1,309 | 92.49% ±7.51 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/goblin?window=all) | 1,309 | 92.49% ±7.51 | +0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,309 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,970 2,815 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,600 2,285 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,121 1,602 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $549 784 coins | 0.8% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $169 241 coins | 32.6% | 92 | 91.6 | 1.00× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $139 199 coins | 3.8% | 14 | 13.1 | 1.07× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $115 164 coins | 6.3% | 25 | 26.2 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $96.60 138 coins | 18.7% | 97 | 91.6 | 1.06× |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Guerrilla (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-guerrilla-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $93.80 134 coins | 7.8% | 44 | 39.3 | 1.12× |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $79.80 114 coins | 11.0% | 64 | 65.5 | 0.98× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-factory-new) | 10.9% | $22.35 31.93 coins | 6.8% | 151 | 143.1 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $12.66 18.08 coins | 4.2% | 163 | 157.1 | 1.04× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-factory-new) | 18.0% | $8.91 12.73 coins | 4.4% | 211 | 235.6 | 0.90× |
| [AUG \| Torque (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-well-worn) | 14.0% | $4.40 6.28 coins | 1.7% | 178 | 183.3 | 0.97× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $2.16 3.09 coins | 1.2% | 269 | 261.8 | 1.03× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-well-worn) Hidden $38.84 55.49 coins $559 798 coins 14.38x 2026-11-06 22:08 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=goblin)

[P250 | Wingshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.81 56.87 coins $2.16 3.09 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.81 56.87 coins $12.66 18.08 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-factory-new) Hidden $39.81 56.87 coins $22.35 31.93 coins 0.56x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) Hidden $39.81 56.87 coins $169 241 coins 4.24x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.81 56.87 coins $79.80 114 coins 2.00x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[MAC-10 | Heat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-factory-new) [El Gamblino 𝓜𝓐𝓕𝓘𝓐](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/El%20Gamblino%20%F0%9D%93%9C%F0%9D%93%90%F0%9D%93%95%F0%9D%93%98%F0%9D%93%90) $39.81 56.87 coins $8.91 12.73 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[P250 | Wingshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.81 56.87 coins $2.16 3.09 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 07:07 UTC

[AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.81 56.87 coins $12.66 18.08 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 07:07 UTC

[AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.81 56.87 coins $12.66 18.08 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 07:07 UTC

[MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-factory-new) [fast csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/fast%20csgoroll.com) $39.81 56.87 coins $22.35 31.93 coins 0.56x 2026-11-11 07:07 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $39.81 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $39.59 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $38.84 | 90.91% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 22.1% extraordinary 3.0% classified 22.9% restricted 52.0% best hit $559 (14.38x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt