--- title: "Golden Hatch case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Golden Hatch ($16.32) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 13 items with odds, observed 83.51% over 7,702 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/golden-hatch rendered: 2026-11-11T14:01Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Golden Hatch](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/golden-hatch) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Golden Hatch A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/golden-hatch?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/golden-hatch?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/golden-hatch) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/golden-hatch?window=all) Price · $16.32 · 23.32 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $14.84 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.51% · 7,702 openings, odds method Variance · 39.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 125 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 49.17% ±40.10 938 openings 7 days · 85.10% ±15.50 6,247 openings 30 days · 83.51% ±13.96 7,702 openings since tracking started · 83.51% ±13.96 7,702 openings 8.5% 54.8% 101.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/golden-hatch?window=24h) | 938 | 49.17% ±40.1 | −2.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/golden-hatch?window=7d) | 6,247 | 85.10% ±15.5 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/golden-hatch) | 7,702 | 83.51% ±14.0 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/golden-hatch?window=all) | 7,702 | 83.51% ±14.0 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,702 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,949 2,785 coins | 1.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,761 2,515 coins | 4.7% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.97× | | [Sticker \| kennyS (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kennys-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,411 2,015 coins | 4.8% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.04× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,288 1,840 coins | 17.4% | 18 | 15.4 | 1.17× | | [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,042 1,489 coins | 14.0% | 10 | 15.4 | 0.65× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,018 1,454 coins | 6.9% | 4 | 7.7 | 0.52× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $508 726 coins | 6.8% | 11 | 15.4 | 0.71× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $230 328 coins | 7.7% | 44 | 38.5 | 1.14× | | [Sticker \| innocent (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-innocent-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 200 | $214 305 coins | 7.2% | 47 | 38.5 | 1.22× | | [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $170 243 coins | 13.8% | 84 | 92.4 | 0.91× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $134 192 coins | 4.5% | 31 | 38.5 | 0.80× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $79.10 113 coins | 8.0% | 87 | 115.5 | 0.75× | | [P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) | 95.0% | $0.45 0.64 coins | 2.9% | 7,358 | 7316.9 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $16.60 23.71 coins $2,065 2,950 coins 124.4x 2026-11-08 07:11 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) [\`FluffyFlow⭕⃤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%60FluffyFlow%E2%AD%95%E2%83%A4) $16.32 23.32 coins $1,761 2,515 coins 107.8x 2026-11-09 18:15 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $16.32 23.32 coins $1,761 2,515 coins 107.8x 2026-11-09 17:13 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) [Crashed](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Crashed) $16.60 23.71 coins $1,721 2,459 coins 103.7x 2026-11-03 12:26 UTC [Sticker | kennyS (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kennys-gold-krakow-2017) [SpaZie](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/SpaZie) $16.60 23.71 coins $1,541 2,201 coins 92.83x 2026-11-06 16:18 UTC [Sticker | kennyS (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kennys-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $16.60 23.71 coins $1,541 2,201 coins 92.83x 2026-11-04 00:00 UTC [Sticker | kennyS (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kennys-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $16.37 23.39 coins $1,411 2,015 coins 86.15x 2026-11-08 20:44 UTC [Sticker | kennyS (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kennys-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $16.53 23.62 coins $1,411 2,015 coins 85.31x 2026-11-08 15:49 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $16.32 23.32 coins $1,288 1,840 coins 78.90x 2026-11-11 11:04 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $16.32 23.32 coins $1,288 1,840 coins 78.90x 2026-11-10 13:05 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=golden-hatch) [P250 | Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.32 23.32 coins $0.45 0.64 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [P250 | Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.32 23.32 coins $0.45 0.64 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [P250 | Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.32 23.32 coins $0.45 0.64 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [P250 | Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.32 23.32 coins $0.45 0.64 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [P250 | Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.32 23.32 coins $0.45 0.64 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [P250 | Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) [Jake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jake) $16.32 23.32 coins $0.45 0.64 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [P250 | Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.32 23.32 coins $0.45 0.64 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [P250 | Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.32 23.32 coins $0.45 0.64 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [P250 | Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.32 23.32 coins $0.45 0.64 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [P250 | Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.32 23.32 coins $0.45 0.64 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $16.32 | 90.91% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $16.37 | 90.92% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $16.40 | 90.89% | 13 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.60 | 90.92% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.8% extraordinary 1.0% restricted 0.2% mil spec 95.0% best hit $2,065 (124.4x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt