--- title: "Golden Leaves case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Golden Leaves ($445.14) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 6 items with odds, observed 112.89% over 60 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/golden-leaves rendered: 2026-11-11T20:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Golden Leaves](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/golden-leaves) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Golden Leaves A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/golden-leaves?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/golden-leaves?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/golden-leaves) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/golden-leaves?window=all) Price · $445.14 · 636 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $404.68 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 112.89% · 60 openings, odds method Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 42 openings · below min 30 days · 60 openings · below min since tracking started · 60 openings · below min 21.0% 124.3% 227.5% **Small sample.** 60 openings and 12.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/golden-leaves?window=24h) | 8 | 124.41% ±102.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/golden-leaves?window=7d) | 42 | 127.92% ±45.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/golden-leaves) | 60 | 112.89% ±37.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/golden-leaves?window=all) | 60 | 112.89% ±37.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 60 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| The Prince (Well-Worn) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-well-worn) | 10.0% | $1,528 2,183 coins | 37.8% | 4 | 6.0 | 0.67× | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1,518 2,169 coins | 37.5% | 10 | 6.0 | 1.67× | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1,384 1,977 coins | 17.1% | 5 | 3.0 | 1.67× | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $1,233 1,762 coins | 7.6% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× | | [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 6 | 9.0 | 0.67× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 57.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 34 | 34.5 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $457 653 coins $1,673 2,390 coins 3.66x 2026-11-08 03:14 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $457 653 coins $1,673 2,390 coins 3.66x 2026-11-04 22:13 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $457 653 coins $1,673 2,390 coins 3.66x 2026-11-04 22:11 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) [Jake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jake) $457 653 coins $1,673 2,390 coins 3.66x 2026-11-04 22:11 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $457 653 coins $1,673 2,390 coins 3.66x 2026-11-04 22:11 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $457 653 coins $1,673 2,390 coins 3.66x 2026-11-04 22:01 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $457 653 coins $1,673 2,390 coins 3.66x 2026-11-04 20:23 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $457 653 coins $1,673 2,390 coins 3.66x 2026-11-04 12:39 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $457 653 coins $1,673 2,390 coins 3.66x 2026-11-04 12:37 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Well-Worn) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-well-worn) Hidden $445 636 coins $1,528 2,183 coins 3.43x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=golden-leaves) [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $445 636 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $445 636 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) Hidden $445 636 coins $1,384 1,977 coins 3.11x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $445 636 coins $1,518 2,169 coins 3.41x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $445 636 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $445 636 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $445 636 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Well-Worn) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-well-worn) Hidden $445 636 coins $1,528 2,183 coins 3.43x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $445 636 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 17:28 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $445 636 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 17:28 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $445 | 90.91% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $445 | 90.91% | 6 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $457 | 90.91% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 10.0% covert 17.5% consumer 72.5% best hit $1,673 (3.66x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt