--- title: "Goop case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Goop ($1,489.29) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 8 items with odds, observed 66.80% over 12 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/goop rendered: 2026-11-11T14:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Goop](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/goop) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Goop A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/goop?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/goop?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/goop) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/goop?window=all) Price · $1,489.29 · 2,128 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $1,353.90 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 66.80% · 12 openings, odds method Variance · 11.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 12 openings · below min since tracking started · 12 openings · below min -0.5% 126.8% 254.0% **Small sample.** 12 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/goop?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/goop?window=7d) | 12 | 66.80% ±186.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/goop) | 12 | 66.80% ±186.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/goop?window=all) | 12 | 66.80% ±186.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) Titan (Holo) + 3x IBP (Holo) (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new-titan-holo-3x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $56K 80,000 coins | 20.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) 4x Titan (Holo) (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear-4x-titan-holo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $28K 40,000 coins | 20.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 67 | $9,342 13,345 coins | 10.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 11 | $3,892 5,560 coins | 25.9% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.85× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 13.0% | $1,077 1,539 coins | 10.3% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 25.0% | $337 482 coins | 6.2% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.33× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 25.0% | $241 345 coins | 4.5% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 25.0% | $74.90 107 coins | 1.4% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $1,508 2,155 coins $4,053 5,790 coins 2.69x 2026-11-04 21:53 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $1,508 2,155 coins $4,053 5,790 coins 2.69x 2026-11-04 21:52 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $1,508 2,155 coins $1,102 1,574 coins 0.73x 2026-11-04 21:52 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $1,508 2,155 coins $1,102 1,574 coins 0.73x 2026-11-04 21:51 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=goop) [★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $1,508 2,155 coins $332 474 coins 0.22x 2026-11-04 21:53 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $1,508 2,155 coins $220 314 coins 0.15x 2026-11-04 21:53 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $1,508 2,155 coins $4,053 5,790 coins 2.69x 2026-11-04 21:53 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $1,508 2,155 coins $78.40 112 coins 0.05x 2026-11-04 21:53 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $1,508 2,155 coins $1,102 1,574 coins 0.73x 2026-11-04 21:52 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $1,508 2,155 coins $332 474 coins 0.22x 2026-11-04 21:52 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $1,508 2,155 coins $4,053 5,790 coins 2.69x 2026-11-04 21:52 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $1,508 2,155 coins $78.40 112 coins 0.05x 2026-11-04 21:52 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $1,508 2,155 coins $332 474 coins 0.22x 2026-11-04 21:51 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $1,508 2,155 coins $332 474 coins 0.22x 2026-11-04 21:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1,489 | 90.91% | 8 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $1,490 | 90.91% | 8 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,508 | 90.91% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 1.5% covert 98.5% best hit $4,053 (2.69x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt