---
title: "Graffiti case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Graffiti ($28.54) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 17 items with odds, observed 89.31% over 948 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/graffiti
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/graffiti)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Graffiti

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/graffiti?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/graffiti?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/graffiti) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/graffiti?window=all)

Price · $28.54 · 40.77 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $25.94 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.31% · 948 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 75 openings · below min

7 days · 85.77% ±8.78 792 openings

30 days · 89.31% ±8.02 948 openings

since tracking started · 89.31% ±8.02 948 openings

70.0% 99.3% 128.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/graffiti?window=24h) | 75 | 99.08% ±28.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/graffiti?window=7d) | 792 | 85.77% ±8.78 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/graffiti) | 948 | 89.31% ±8.02 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/graffiti?window=all) | 948 | 89.31% ±8.02 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 948 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $310 443 coins | 1.2% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $210 300 coins | 2.0% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $114 163 coins | 3.5% | 8 | 7.6 | 1.05× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $108 154 coins | 32.4% | 78 | 73.9 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $88.90 127 coins | 1.2% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.30× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $76.30 109 coins | 5.0% | 15 | 16.1 | 0.93× |
| [Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $62.50 89.29 coins | 33.7% | 123 | 132.7 | 0.93× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-battle-scarred) | 1 in 77 | $35.01 50.02 coins | 1.8% | 15 | 12.3 | 1.22× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $33.53 47.9 coins | 0.6% | 1 | 4.7 | 0.21× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $25.70 36.72 coins | 3.5% | 24 | 33.2 | 0.72× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $19.94 28.48 coins | 2.2% | 43 | 26.5 | 1.62× |
| [AK-47 \| Predator (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $12.08 17.25 coins | 2.1% | 42 | 42.7 | 0.98× |
| [Tec-9 \| Titanium Bit (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-titanium-bit-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $8.14 11.63 coins | 3.8% | 105 | 113.8 | 0.92× |
| [Nova \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $7.21 10.3 coins | 1.7% | 65 | 56.9 | 1.14× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-well-worn) | 15.0% | $3.69 5.27 coins | 2.1% | 146 | 142.2 | 1.03× |
| [FAMAS \| Macabre (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-macabre-battle-scarred) | 15.4% | $3.27 4.67 coins | 1.9% | 140 | 146.0 | 0.96× |
| [MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-factory-new) | 14.0% | $2.40 3.43 coins | 1.3% | 139 | 132.7 | 1.05× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=graffiti)

[MAC-10 | Last Dive (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-factory-new) Hidden $28.54 40.77 coins $2.40 3.43 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 06:04 UTC

[MAC-10 | Last Dive (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-factory-new) [fast csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/fast%20csgoroll.com) $28.54 40.77 coins $2.40 3.43 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 06:04 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Marina (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-well-worn) Hidden $28.54 40.77 coins $3.69 5.27 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 06:04 UTC

[FAMAS | Macabre (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-macabre-battle-scarred) Hidden $28.54 40.77 coins $3.27 4.67 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 06:04 UTC

[Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.54 40.77 coins $62.50 89.29 coins 2.19x 2026-11-11 06:04 UTC

[Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.54 40.77 coins $62.50 89.29 coins 2.19x 2026-11-11 06:04 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Marina (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-well-worn) Hidden $28.54 40.77 coins $3.69 5.27 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 05:43 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-battle-scarred) Hidden $28.54 40.77 coins $35.01 50.02 coins 1.23x 2026-11-11 05:43 UTC

[Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.54 40.77 coins $62.50 89.29 coins 2.19x 2026-11-11 05:43 UTC

[Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.54 40.77 coins $62.50 89.29 coins 2.19x 2026-11-11 05:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $28.54 | 90.90% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $28.60 | 90.90% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $28.36 | 90.91% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 1.9% classified 3.8% covert 24.3% restricted 47.4% industrial 7.3% mil spec 15.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt