--- title: "Gramophone case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Gramophone ($42.09) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 16 items with odds, observed 88.57% over 320 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gramophone rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Gramophone](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gramophone) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Gramophone A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gramophone?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gramophone?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gramophone) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gramophone?window=all) Price · $42.09 · 60.13 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $38.27 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.57% · 320 openings, odds method Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 73.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 10 openings · below min 7 days · 93.12% ±21.61 260 openings 30 days · 88.57% ±19.48 320 openings since tracking started · 88.57% ±19.48 320 openings -0.5% 97.0% 194.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gramophone?window=24h) | 10 | 84.52% ±109.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gramophone?window=7d) | 260 | 93.12% ±21.6 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gramophone) | 320 | 88.57% ±19.5 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gramophone?window=all) | 320 | 88.57% ±19.5 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 320 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,164 4,520 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 2,000 | $902 1,288 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $493 705 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $454 648 coins | 5.9% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $356 508 coins | 13.0% | 6 | 4.5 | 1.34× | | [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $309 442 coins | 5.7% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.89× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 91 | $209 299 coins | 6.0% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.85× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $91.70 131 coins | 14.4% | 12 | 19.2 | 0.63× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 40 | $86.80 124 coins | 5.7% | 14 | 8.0 | 1.75× | | [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $79.80 114 coins | 16.7% | 28 | 25.6 | 1.09× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $57.08 81.55 coins | 9.0% | 18 | 19.2 | 0.94× | | [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $18.20 26 coins | 4.3% | 28 | 28.8 | 0.97× | | [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-well-worn) | 15.7% | $13.40 19.14 coins | 5.5% | 50 | 50.2 | 1.00× | | [P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) | 20.0% | $10.22 14.6 coins | 5.3% | 65 | 64.0 | 1.02× | | [P90 \| Trigon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-well-worn) | 17.0% | $8.74 12.48 coins | 3.9% | 43 | 54.4 | 0.79× | | [Sticker \| Dead Eye (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dead-eye-holo) | 12.0% | $6.57 9.39 coins | 2.1% | 50 | 38.4 | 1.30× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=gramophone) [Sticker | Dead Eye (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dead-eye-holo) Hidden $42.09 60.13 coins $6.57 9.39 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 05:34 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-well-worn) Hidden $42.09 60.13 coins $57.08 81.55 coins 1.36x 2026-11-11 05:34 UTC [P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) Hidden $42.09 60.13 coins $10.22 14.6 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 05:34 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $42.09 60.13 coins $86.80 124 coins 2.06x 2026-11-11 05:34 UTC [M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) Hidden $42.09 60.13 coins $79.80 114 coins 1.90x 2026-11-11 05:34 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [Arcs](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Arcs) $42.09 60.13 coins $86.80 124 coins 2.06x 2026-11-11 05:34 UTC [Sticker | Dead Eye (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dead-eye-holo) Hidden $42.09 60.13 coins $6.57 9.39 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 05:23 UTC [Sticker | Dead Eye (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dead-eye-holo) Hidden $42.09 60.13 coins $6.57 9.39 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 05:23 UTC [Sticker | Dead Eye (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dead-eye-holo) Hidden $42.09 60.13 coins $6.57 9.39 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 05:23 UTC [P90 | Trigon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-well-worn) [Mommy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Mommy) $42.09 60.13 coins $8.74 12.48 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 05:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $42.09 | 90.92% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $42.22 | 90.91% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $42.11 | 90.90% | 16 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $42.55 | 90.90% | 16 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $42.47 | 90.91% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $42.75 | 90.90% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed high 0.0% covert 25.1% rare 0.5% epic 0.7% classified 41.7% violet 20.0% remarkable 12.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt