--- title: "Grand Heist case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Grand Heist ($37.67) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 12 items with odds, observed 92.58% over 2,894 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grand-heist rendered: 2026-11-11T19:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Grand Heist](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grand-heist) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Grand Heist A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grand-heist?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grand-heist?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grand-heist) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grand-heist?window=all) Price · $37.67 · 53.82 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $34.25 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.58% · 2,894 openings, odds method Variance · 64.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 118 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 96.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 164 openings · below min 7 days · 97.43% ±32.92 2,331 openings 30 days · 92.58% ±29.56 2,894 openings since tracking started · 92.58% ±29.56 2,894 openings -0.5% 71.0% 142.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grand-heist?window=24h) | 164 | 19.36% ±122.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grand-heist?window=7d) | 2,331 | 97.43% ±32.9 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grand-heist) | 2,894 | 92.58% ±29.6 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grand-heist?window=all) | 2,894 | 92.58% ±29.6 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,894 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $10.6K 15,130 coins | 15.5% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $4,617 6,595 coins | 13.5% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.38× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $1,761 2,515 coins | 7.7% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.69× | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $1,058 1,512 coins | 9.3% | 11 | 8.7 | 1.27× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,018 1,454 coins | 7.4% | 12 | 7.2 | 1.66× | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 182 | $454 648 coins | 7.3% | 19 | 15.9 | 1.19× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $446 637 coins | 6.5% | 10 | 14.5 | 0.69× | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $434 620 coins | 7.6% | 21 | 17.4 | 1.21× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 154 | $347 495 coins | 6.6% | 12 | 18.8 | 0.64× | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 118 | $200 285 coins | 5.0% | 15 | 24.6 | 0.61× | | [MP7 \| Vault Heist (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-factory-new) | 40.0% | $8.97 12.81 coins | 10.5% | 1,131 | 1157.6 | 0.98× | | [MP7 \| Vault Heist (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-battle-scarred) | 56.0% | $1.99 2.84 coins | 3.3% | 1,655 | 1620.6 | 1.02× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [Acho](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Acho) $37.60 53.72 coins $10.8K 15,465 coins 287.9x 2026-11-06 18:18 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) [LarenPerec](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/LarenPerec) $37.62 53.74 coins $4,631 6,615 coins 123.1x 2026-11-06 21:15 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $37.60 53.72 coins $4,631 6,615 coins 123.1x 2026-11-06 21:00 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) [mickarmement100k](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/mickarmement100k) $37.60 53.72 coins $4,631 6,615 coins 123.1x 2026-11-05 19:57 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $37.67 53.82 coins $4,617 6,595 coins 122.5x 2026-11-10 18:19 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $37.62 53.74 coins $1,721 2,459 coins 45.76x 2026-11-07 15:20 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $37.62 53.74 coins $1,721 2,459 coins 45.76x 2026-11-06 21:30 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $37.82 54.03 coins $1,721 2,459 coins 45.51x 2026-11-03 16:15 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $37.62 53.74 coins $1,083 1,547 coins 28.79x 2026-11-08 14:56 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $37.62 53.74 coins $1,083 1,547 coins 28.79x 2026-11-08 00:40 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=grand-heist) [MP7 | Vault Heist (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-battle-scarred) Hidden $37.67 53.82 coins $1.99 2.84 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC [MP7 | Vault Heist (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-battle-scarred) Hidden $37.67 53.82 coins $1.99 2.84 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC [MP7 | Vault Heist (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-factory-new) Hidden $37.67 53.82 coins $8.97 12.81 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC [MP7 | Vault Heist (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-factory-new) Hidden $37.67 53.82 coins $8.97 12.81 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $37.67 53.82 coins $454 648 coins 12.04x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC [MP7 | Vault Heist (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-factory-new) [Queen](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Queen) $37.67 53.82 coins $8.97 12.81 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC [MP7 | Vault Heist (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-battle-scarred) Hidden $37.67 53.82 coins $1.99 2.84 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC [MP7 | Vault Heist (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-battle-scarred) Hidden $37.67 53.82 coins $1.99 2.84 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC [MP7 | Vault Heist (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-battle-scarred) Hidden $37.67 53.82 coins $1.99 2.84 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC [MP7 | Vault Heist (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-battle-scarred) Hidden $37.67 53.82 coins $1.99 2.84 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $37.67 | 90.91% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $37.83 | 90.91% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $37.35 | 90.92% | 12 | | 6 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $37.62 | 90.91% | 12 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $37.60 | 90.90% | 12 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $37.82 | 90.91% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.9% rare 0.5% epic 0.6% industrial 96.0% best hit $10.8K (287.9x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt