--- title: "Green Flag case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Green Flag ($45.07) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 19 items with odds, observed 93.68% over 470 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-flag rendered: 2026-11-11T19:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Green Flag](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-flag) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Green Flag A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-flag?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-flag?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-flag) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-flag?window=all) Price · $45.07 · 64.38 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $40.97 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.68% · 470 openings, odds method Variance · 4.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 71.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 95.13% ±21.84 358 openings 30 days · 93.68% ±19.05 470 openings since tracking started · 93.68% ±19.05 470 openings -0.5% 72.3% 145.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-flag?window=24h) | 16 | 40.91% ±103.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-flag?window=7d) | 358 | 95.13% ±21.8 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-flag) | 470 | 93.68% ±19.0 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-flag?window=all) | 470 | 93.68% ±19.0 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 470 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $693 990 coins | 16.9% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.06× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) | 1 in 222 | $587 838 coins | 6.4% | 5 | 2.1 | 2.36× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $398 569 coins | 4.4% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.95× | | [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $378 540 coins | 5.5% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $295 421 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 26 | $209 299 coins | 19.4% | 17 | 17.9 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $99.40 142 coins | 12.1% | 18 | 23.5 | 0.77× | | [Berlin 2019 Viewer Pass + 3 Souvenir Tokens other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/berlin-2019-viewer-pass-3-souvenir-tokens) | 1 in 20 | $79.80 114 coins | 9.7% | 18 | 23.5 | 0.77× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $47.80 68.28 coins | 7.2% | 25 | 29.1 | 0.86× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $45.89 65.55 coins | 6.9% | 25 | 29.1 | 0.86× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-green-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $19.75 28.21 coins | 3.4% | 39 | 32.9 | 1.19× | | [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Acid Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $16.17 23.1 coins | 0.5% | 10 | 5.6 | 1.77× | | [Sticker \| Team Spirit (Holo) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-spirit-holo-katowice-2019) | 1 in 13 | $15.67 22.39 coins | 2.9% | 48 | 35.3 | 1.36× | | [Souvenir AUG \| Carved Jade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-carved-jade-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $6.55 9.36 coins | 1.3% | 39 | 39.0 | 1.00× | | [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $6.03 8.62 coins | 1.0% | 33 | 32.9 | 1.00× | | [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $3.09 4.42 coins | 0.6% | 25 | 37.6 | 0.66× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| OpTic Gaming \| Atlanta 2017 graffiti · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-optic-gaming-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 11 | $3.06 4.37 coins | 0.7% | 49 | 42.3 | 1.16× | | [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-minimal-wear) | 10.5% | $1.01 1.44 coins | 0.3% | 53 | 49.4 | 1.07× | | [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-eco-well-worn) | 12.8% | $0.95 1.36 coins | 0.3% | 56 | 59.9 | 0.93× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-factory-new) [Elze](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Elze) $45.12 64.45 coins $693 990 coins 15.36x 2026-11-09 11:50 UTC [Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-factory-new) [User#966](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23966) $45.12 64.46 coins $693 990 coins 15.36x 2026-11-09 07:28 UTC [Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-factory-new) Hidden $44.93 64.18 coins $693 990 coins 15.43x 2026-11-05 13:09 UTC [Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-factory-new) Hidden $44.93 64.18 coins $693 990 coins 15.43x 2026-11-04 19:23 UTC [Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-factory-new) Hidden $44.93 64.18 coins $693 990 coins 15.43x 2026-11-04 18:36 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) Hidden $45.12 64.45 coins $587 838 coins 13.00x 2026-11-10 07:10 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) Hidden $45.12 64.46 coins $587 838 coins 13.00x 2026-11-09 07:27 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) Hidden $44.93 64.19 coins $536 765 coins 11.92x 2026-11-06 18:42 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) [mickarmement100k](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/mickarmement100k) $44.93 64.18 coins $536 765 coins 11.92x 2026-11-05 20:53 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) Hidden $44.93 64.18 coins $536 765 coins 11.92x 2026-11-05 15:28 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=green-flag) [AWP | Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) Hidden $45.07 64.38 coins $6.03 8.62 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC [AWP | Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) Hidden $45.07 64.38 coins $6.03 8.62 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC [Souvenir AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-carved-jade-factory-new) Hidden $45.07 64.38 coins $6.55 9.36 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | OpTic Gaming | Atlanta 2017 graffiti · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-optic-gaming-atlanta-2017) Hidden $45.07 64.38 coins $3.06 4.37 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC [Berlin 2019 Viewer Pass + 3 Souvenir Tokens other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/berlin-2019-viewer-pass-3-souvenir-tokens) Hidden $45.07 64.38 coins $79.80 114 coins 1.77x 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC [Berlin 2019 Viewer Pass + 3 Souvenir Tokens other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/berlin-2019-viewer-pass-3-souvenir-tokens) [🔸Regular🔸](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%94%B8Regular%F0%9F%94%B8) $45.07 64.38 coins $79.80 114 coins 1.77x 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC [Souvenir AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-carved-jade-factory-new) Hidden $45.07 64.38 coins $6.55 9.36 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC [Sticker | Team Spirit (Holo) | Katowice 2019 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-spirit-holo-katowice-2019) Hidden $45.07 64.38 coins $15.67 22.39 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC [Sticker | Team Spirit (Holo) | Katowice 2019 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-spirit-holo-katowice-2019) Hidden $45.07 64.38 coins $15.67 22.39 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC [Sticker | Team Spirit (Holo) | Katowice 2019 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-spirit-holo-katowice-2019) Hidden $45.07 64.38 coins $15.67 22.39 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 14:18 UTC | $45.07 | 90.90% | 19 | | 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $45.12 | 90.91% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $45.12 | 90.90% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $45.03 | 90.91% | 19 | | 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $44.93 | 90.90% | 19 | | 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $44.93 | 90.91% | 19 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $44.93 | 90.90% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 31.1% extraordinary 0.9% covert 3.9% classified 11.2% base 5.0% mil spec 16.5% remarkable 7.5% #d32ce6 7.0% industrial 8.0% high 9.0% best hit $693 (15.36x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt