---
title: "Green Goblin case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Green Goblin ($12.75) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 27 items with odds, observed 97.03% over 10.7K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-goblin
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:22Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Green Goblin](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-goblin)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Green Goblin

A case on CSGORoll (knives, awp, rifles, gloves, pistols), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-goblin?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-goblin?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-goblin) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-goblin?window=all)

Price · $12.75 · 18.22 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $11.59 from 27 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 97.03% · 10.7K openings, odds method

Variance · 24.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 89.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.87% ±30.25 1,042 openings

7 days · 98.74% ±10.20 9,061 openings

30 days · 97.03% ±9.39 10.7K openings

since tracking started · 97.03% ±9.39 10.7K openings

57.0% 88.0% 119.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-goblin?window=24h) | 1,042 | 87.87% ±30.3 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-goblin?window=7d) | 9,061 | 98.74% ±10.2 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-goblin) | 10.7K | 97.03% ±9.39 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-goblin?window=all) | 10.7K | 97.03% ±9.39 | +1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 100,000 | $6,241 8,915 coins | 0.5% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100,000 | $5,978 8,540 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20,000 | $4,263 6,090 coins | 1.8% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $3,311 4,730 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,079 2,970 coins | 1.8% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.94× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,170 1,672 coins | 3.0% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $587 838 coins | 2.5% | 8 | 5.3 | 1.50× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $378 540 coins | 4.9% | 14 | 16.0 | 0.88× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 400 | $356 508 coins | 7.7% | 25 | 26.6 | 0.94× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 133 | $204 291 coins | 13.2% | 80 | 79.9 | 1.00× |
| [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $199 284 coins | 8.6% | 56 | 53.3 | 1.05× |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $93.80 134 coins | 10.1% | 148 | 133.2 | 1.11× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) weapon · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 100 | $67.54 96.49 coins | 5.8% | 95 | 106.5 | 0.89× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $42.24 60.34 coins | 7.3% | 223 | 213.1 | 1.05× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $27.90 39.86 coins | 3.6% | 160 | 159.8 | 1.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $16.33 23.33 coins | 4.6% | 365 | 346.2 | 1.05× |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-nuclear-garden-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $12.67 18.1 coins | 5.5% | 560 | 532.6 | 1.05× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $10.66 15.23 coins | 5.5% | 634 | 639.2 | 0.99× |
| [AUG \| Carved Jade (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $8.33 11.9 coins | 2.9% | 442 | 426.1 | 1.04× |
| [Souvenir Nova \| Green Apple (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-green-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $7.20 10.28 coins | 4.3% | 759 | 745.7 | 1.02× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $3.09 4.42 coins | 1.7% | 700 | 692.4 | 1.01× |
| [Operation Hydra Case Key other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/operation-hydra-case-key) | 1 in 13 | $1.98 2.83 coins | 1.3% | 773 | 799.0 | 0.97× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $1.72 2.45 coins | 1.1% | 776 | 772.4 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.80 1.15 coins | 0.6% | 888 | 905.5 | 0.98× |
| [P2000 \| Turf (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-turf-well-worn) | 10.5% | $0.32 0.45 coins | 0.3% | 1,075 | 1118.6 | 0.96× |
| [G3SG1 \| Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-factory-new) | 14.5% | $0.13 0.18 coins | 0.2% | 1,509 | 1544.7 | 0.98× |
| [MAC-10 \| Acid Hex (Factory New) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-acid-hex-factory-new) | 12.5% | $0.12 0.17 coins | 0.1% | 1,357 | 1331.6 | 1.02× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) Hidden $13.05 18.65 coins $6,241 8,915 coins 478.0x 2026-11-06 21:31 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [TABOR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/TABOR) $12.73 18.19 coins $4,263 6,090 coins 334.8x 2026-11-10 06:35 UTC

[★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $13.07 18.67 coins $2,107 3,010 coins 161.2x 2026-11-03 05:12 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) Hidden $13.05 18.65 coins $1,223 1,747 coins 93.67x 2026-11-06 18:54 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) [The other other guy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/The%20other%20other%20guy) $12.73 18.19 coins $1,170 1,672 coins 91.92x 2026-11-10 09:13 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) Hidden $12.75 18.21 coins $1,170 1,672 coins 91.82x 2026-11-08 22:03 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) Hidden $12.73 18.19 coins $587 838 coins 46.07x 2026-11-10 21:36 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) Hidden $12.76 18.23 coins $587 838 coins 45.97x 2026-11-08 21:38 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) Hidden $12.77 18.24 coins $587 838 coins 45.94x 2026-11-08 16:54 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) [Rico.Ble](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rico.Ble) $13.05 18.65 coins $536 765 coins 41.02x 2026-11-07 18:21 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=green-goblin)

[PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.75 18.22 coins $1.72 2.45 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC

[Operation Hydra Case Key other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/operation-hydra-case-key) Hidden $12.75 18.22 coins $1.98 2.83 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC

[MAC-10 | Acid Hex (Factory New) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-acid-hex-factory-new) Hidden $12.75 18.22 coins $0.12 0.17 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.75 18.22 coins $1.72 2.45 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC

[Souvenir Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-nuclear-garden-battle-scarred) Hidden $12.75 18.22 coins $12.67 18.1 coins 0.99x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC

[MP9 | Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) [Jarza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jarza) $12.75 18.22 coins $10.66 15.23 coins 0.84x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.75 18.22 coins $1.72 2.45 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 17:19 UTC

[G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-factory-new) Hidden $12.75 18.22 coins $0.13 0.18 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:19 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-minimal-wear) [Jarza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jarza) $12.75 18.22 coins $1.72 2.45 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 17:19 UTC

[MP9 | Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.75 18.22 coins $10.66 15.23 coins 0.84x 2026-11-11 17:19 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC | $12.75 | 90.89% | 27 |
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $12.75 | 90.89% | 27 |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $12.73 | 90.89% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $12.74 | 90.90% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $12.74 | 90.89% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $12.75 | 90.89% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $12.75 | 90.89% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $12.80 | 90.92% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $13.06 | 90.90% | 27 |
| 6 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $13.05 | 90.93% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $13.05 | 90.89% | 27 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $13.06 | 90.92% | 27 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $13.07 | 90.93% | 27 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.07 | 90.91% | 27 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 5.3% epic 0.0% extraordinary 0.1% restricted 21.4% mil spec 19.3% classified 6.0% industrial 28.0% base 7.5% common 12.5% best hit $6,241 (478.0x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt