--- title: "Green Light case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Green Light ($25.26) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 9 items with odds, observed 106.00% over 1,217 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-light rendered: 2026-11-11T14:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Green Light](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-light) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Green Light A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-light?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-light?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-light) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-light?window=all) Price · $25.26 · 36.09 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $22.96 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 106.00% · 1,217 openings, odds method Variance · 7.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 50 openings · below min 7 days · 109.25% ±16.44 1,032 openings 30 days · 106.00% ±15.15 1,217 openings since tracking started · 106.00% ±15.15 1,217 openings -0.5% 71.8% 144.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-light?window=24h) | 50 | 69.60% ±74.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-light?window=7d) | 1,032 | 109.25% ±16.4 | +2.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-light) | 1,217 | 106.00% ±15.1 | +2.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/green-light?window=all) | 1,217 | 106.00% ±15.1 | +2.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,217 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,269 8,955 coins | 2.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $370 529 coins | 4.0% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.66× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $59.14 84.48 coins | 3.2% | 15 | 15.2 | 0.99× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $53.17 75.95 coins | 20.8% | 98 | 109.5 | 0.89× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-minimal-wear) | 10.5% | $49.00 70 coins | 22.4% | 119 | 127.7 | 0.93× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $42.19 60.27 coins | 16.5% | 117 | 109.5 | 1.07× | | [Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $15.44 22.06 coins | 13.4% | 257 | 243.4 | 1.06× | | [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 30.0% | $11.80 16.86 coins | 15.4% | 351 | 365.1 | 0.96× | | [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 20.0% | $1.61 2.3 coins | 1.4% | 257 | 243.4 | 1.06× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.63 36.62 coins $6,465 9,235 coins 252.2x 2026-11-05 08:02 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=green-light) [Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) [3GO](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/3GO) $25.26 36.09 coins $1.61 2.3 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 09:13 UTC [Glock-18 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-minimal-wear) [Veckans](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Veckans) $25.26 36.09 coins $15.44 22.06 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 09:13 UTC [Glock-18 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.26 36.09 coins $15.44 22.06 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 09:13 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.26 36.09 coins $42.19 60.27 coins 1.67x 2026-11-11 09:13 UTC [Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) Hidden $25.26 36.09 coins $1.61 2.3 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 05:25 UTC [Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) [Spud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Spud) $25.26 36.09 coins $1.61 2.3 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 05:25 UTC [Glock-18 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.26 36.09 coins $15.44 22.06 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 05:25 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.26 36.09 coins $42.19 60.27 coins 1.67x 2026-11-11 05:25 UTC [Glock-18 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.26 36.09 coins $15.44 22.06 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 01:05 UTC [Galil AR | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) Hidden $25.26 36.09 coins $11.80 16.86 coins 0.47x 2026-11-11 01:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $25.26 | 90.90% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $25.58 | 90.91% | 9 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.63 | 90.91% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% restricted 20.3% mil spec 1.3% covert 18.0% classified 40.5% industrial 20.0% best hit $6,465 (252.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt