--- title: "Grinch case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Grinch ($11.51) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 18 items with odds, observed 96.48% over 4,813 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grinch rendered: 2026-11-11T15:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Grinch](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grinch) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Grinch A case on CSGORoll (15%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grinch?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grinch?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grinch) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grinch?window=all) Price · $11.51 · 16.44 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $10.46 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.48% · 4,813 openings, odds method Variance · 10.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 94.38% ±23.37 704 openings 7 days · 95.68% ±9.67 4,007 openings 30 days · 96.48% ±8.81 4,813 openings since tracking started · 96.48% ±8.81 4,813 openings 70.5% 94.5% 118.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grinch?window=24h) | 704 | 94.38% ±23.4 | +0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grinch?window=7d) | 4,007 | 95.68% ±9.67 | +1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grinch) | 4,813 | 96.48% ±8.81 | +1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grinch?window=all) | 4,813 | 96.48% ±8.81 | +1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,813 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $587 838 coins | 2.8% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $506 723 coins | 4.8% | 10 | 4.8 | 2.08× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 667 | $449 641 coins | 6.4% | 5 | 7.2 | 0.69× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-boreal-forest-well-worn) | 1 in 286 | $368 526 coins | 12.3% | 19 | 16.8 | 1.13× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) weapon · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 200 | $88.90 127 coins | 4.2% | 27 | 24.1 | 1.12× | | [P250 \| See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $68.77 98.25 coins | 9.9% | 85 | 72.2 | 1.18× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-well-worn) | 1 in 133 | $59.14 84.48 coins | 4.2% | 35 | 36.1 | 0.97× | | [Antwerp 2022 Viewer Pass other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/antwerp-2022-viewer-pass) | 1 in 31 | $28.49 40.7 coins | 8.7% | 158 | 154.0 | 1.03× | | [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $27.90 39.86 coins | 6.4% | 108 | 115.5 | 0.93× | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $27.65 39.5 coins | 2.6% | 46 | 48.1 | 0.96× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $22.49 32.13 coins | 10.7% | 249 | 240.7 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-eco-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $8.50 12.14 coins | 5.7% | 331 | 336.9 | 0.98× | | [MP7 \| Powercore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $8.30 11.86 coins | 7.1% | 419 | 433.2 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-bamboozle-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $6.18 8.83 coins | 4.1% | 341 | 336.9 | 1.01× | | [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $3.09 4.42 coins | 4.4% | 734 | 721.9 | 1.02× | | [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1.95 2.78 coins | 1.9% | 479 | 481.3 | 1.00× | | [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 17.0% | $1.09 1.55 coins | 1.8% | 776 | 818.2 | 0.95× | | [P90 \| Grim (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.91 1.3 coins | 1.7% | 989 | 962.6 | 1.03× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) Hidden $11.68 16.69 coins $536 765 coins 45.84x 2026-11-07 05:01 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) Hidden $11.68 16.69 coins $536 765 coins 45.84x 2026-11-05 19:21 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) [Epexxx](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Epexxx) $11.51 16.44 coins $506 723 coins 43.98x 2026-11-10 15:19 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) [YotamS csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/YotamS%20csgoroll.com) $11.51 16.44 coins $506 723 coins 43.98x 2026-11-09 21:14 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) Hidden $11.51 16.44 coins $506 723 coins 43.98x 2026-11-09 17:13 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) Hidden $11.61 16.58 coins $506 723 coins 43.61x 2026-11-08 19:22 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) Hidden $11.68 16.69 coins $506 723 coins 43.32x 2026-11-05 17:46 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) Hidden $11.68 16.69 coins $506 723 coins 43.32x 2026-11-04 20:59 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) [JALMARI](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/JALMARI) $11.68 16.69 coins $506 723 coins 43.32x 2026-11-04 17:09 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) Hidden $11.68 16.69 coins $506 723 coins 43.32x 2026-11-03 14:07 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=grinch) [PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.51 16.44 coins $3.09 4.42 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [P90 | Grim (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-factory-new) Hidden $11.51 16.44 coins $0.91 1.3 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.51 16.44 coins $3.09 4.42 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [P90 | Grim (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-factory-new) Hidden $11.51 16.44 coins $0.91 1.3 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-minimal-wear) [Mang3kyou](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Mang3kyou) $11.51 16.44 coins $3.09 4.42 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.51 16.44 coins $22.49 32.13 coins 1.95x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.51 16.44 coins $3.09 4.42 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 14:42 UTC [PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.51 16.44 coins $3.09 4.42 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 14:42 UTC [AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.51 16.44 coins $1.09 1.55 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 14:42 UTC [PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.51 16.44 coins $3.09 4.42 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 14:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $11.51 | 90.92% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $11.51 | 90.93% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $11.70 | 90.91% | 18 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.68 | 90.90% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.1% covert 2.6% mil spec 3.1% base 3.2% classified 1.0% restricted 55.0% industrial 15.0% Mil Spec 20.0% best hit $536 (45.84x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt