--- title: "Grindstone case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Grindstone ($40.01) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 87.77% over 1,343 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grindstone rendered: 2026-11-11T22:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Grindstone](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grindstone) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Grindstone A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grindstone?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grindstone?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grindstone) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grindstone?window=all) Price · $40.01 · 57.16 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $36.37 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.77% · 1,343 openings, odds method Variance · 6.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 45 openings · below min 7 days · 88.79% ±14.99 1,066 openings 30 days · 87.77% ±13.35 1,343 openings since tracking started · 87.77% ±13.35 1,343 openings -0.5% 70.8% 142.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grindstone?window=24h) | 45 | 68.17% ±73.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grindstone?window=7d) | 1,066 | 88.79% ±15.0 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grindstone) | 1,343 | 87.77% ±13.3 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/grindstone?window=all) | 1,343 | 87.77% ±13.3 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,343 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $891 1,273 coins | 12.2% | 7 | 6.7 | 1.04× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 125 | $444 634 coins | 9.8% | 11 | 10.7 | 1.02× | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $377 539 coins | 20.7% | 25 | 26.9 | 0.93× | | [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $251 359 coins | 8.3% | 15 | 16.1 | 0.93× | | [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $192 274 coins | 15.8% | 39 | 40.3 | 0.97× | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $118 169 coins | 13.0% | 47 | 53.7 | 0.87× | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $78.40 112 coins | 18.3% | 113 | 114.2 | 0.99× | | [Souvenir USP-S \| Night Ops (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-night-ops-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $13.01 18.59 coins | 1.8% | 69 | 67.2 | 1.03× | | [G3SG1 \| Jungle Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-jungle-dashed-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 347 | 335.8 | 1.03× | | [SCAR-20 \| Sand Mesh (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-well-worn) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 339 | 335.8 | 1.01× | | [Galil AR \| Sage Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 331 | 335.8 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $40.01 57.16 coins $891 1,273 coins 22.27x 2026-11-10 11:08 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $40.01 57.16 coins $891 1,273 coins 22.27x 2026-11-10 07:12 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $40.01 57.16 coins $891 1,273 coins 22.27x 2026-11-09 09:11 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [🌌Satoru Gojo🌌](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%8C%8CSatoru%20Gojo%F0%9F%8C%8C) $40.06 57.23 coins $891 1,273 coins 22.24x 2026-11-07 03:40 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $40.06 57.23 coins $891 1,273 coins 22.24x 2026-11-07 01:34 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $40.06 57.23 coins $891 1,273 coins 22.24x 2026-11-06 23:03 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $40.06 57.23 coins $891 1,273 coins 22.24x 2026-11-04 20:08 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=grindstone) [G3SG1 | Jungle Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-jungle-dashed-battle-scarred) [playerman](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/playerman) $40.01 57.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 22:01 UTC [SCAR-20 | Sand Mesh (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-well-worn) Hidden $40.01 57.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 22:01 UTC [Galil AR | Sage Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-battle-scarred) [Fluffy Sniperz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Fluffy%20Sniperz) $40.01 57.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 22:01 UTC [Galil AR | Sage Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-battle-scarred) Hidden $40.01 57.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 22:01 UTC [M4A4 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) Hidden $40.01 57.16 coins $78.40 112 coins 1.96x 2026-11-11 22:01 UTC [G3SG1 | Jungle Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-jungle-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $40.01 57.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:55 UTC [G3SG1 | Jungle Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-jungle-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $40.01 57.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:55 UTC [G3SG1 | Jungle Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-jungle-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $40.01 57.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:55 UTC [G3SG1 | Jungle Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-jungle-dashed-battle-scarred) [Shiba inu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Shiba%20inu) $40.01 57.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:55 UTC [Souvenir USP-S | Night Ops (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-night-ops-minimal-wear) Hidden $40.01 57.16 coins $13.01 18.59 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 21:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $40.01 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $40.07 | 90.91% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $40.06 | 90.91% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.8% classified 6.0% mil spec 9.2% consumer 75.0% best hit $891 (22.27x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt