---
title: "Guerilla Case case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Guerilla Case ($6.43) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.93% from 22 items with odds, observed 89.79% over 8,793 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/guerilla-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Guerilla Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/guerilla-case)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Guerilla Case

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/guerilla-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/guerilla-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/guerilla-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/guerilla-case?window=all)

Price · $6.43 · 9.18 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.93% · EV $5.84 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.79% · 8,793 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.58% ±13.96 1,315 openings

7 days · 90.20% ±6.00 7,226 openings

30 days · 89.79% ±5.45 8,793 openings

since tracking started · 89.79% ±5.45 8,793 openings

74.0% 88.5% 103.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/guerilla-case?window=24h) | 1,315 | 88.58% ±14.0 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/guerilla-case?window=7d) | 7,226 | 90.20% ±6.00 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/guerilla-case) | 8,793 | 89.79% ±5.45 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/guerilla-case?window=all) | 8,793 | 89.79% ±5.45 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,829 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $795 1,136 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $560 800 coins | 1.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $235 336 coins | 2.0% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.13× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $175 250 coins | 1.5% | 8 | 4.4 | 1.81× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $139 199 coins | 2.4% | 6 | 8.8 | 0.68× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $124 177 coins | 2.1% | 9 | 8.8 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $111 159 coins | 7.6% | 29 | 35.3 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $88.20 126 coins | 3.0% | 28 | 17.7 | 1.59× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $44.31 63.3 coins | 6.1% | 62 | 70.6 | 0.88× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $42.29 60.41 coins | 2.9% | 37 | 35.3 | 1.05× |
| [MP7 \| Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $20.20 28.86 coins | 10.8% | 263 | 275.5 | 0.95× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $16.24 23.2 coins | 13.9% | 434 | 441.5 | 0.98× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $13.02 18.6 coins | 11.1% | 453 | 441.5 | 1.03× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $12.24 17.48 coins | 12.6% | 529 | 529.7 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-tiger-moth-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $7.04 10.05 coins | 7.2% | 545 | 529.7 | 1.03× |
| [Nova \| Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $4.92 7.03 coins | 5.9% | 589 | 618.0 | 0.95× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $4.05 5.79 coins | 5.5% | 688 | 706.3 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.72 1.03 coins | 1.2% | 927 | 882.9 | 1.05× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.46 0.66 coins | 0.6% | 694 | 706.3 | 0.98× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Yorick (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-yorick-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.27 0.39 coins | 0.6% | 1,056 | 1059.5 | 1.00× |
| [Negev \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-field-tested) | 12.8% | $0.22 0.31 coins | 0.5% | 1,121 | 1126.6 | 1.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Army Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-army-mesh-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.04 0.06 coins | 0.1% | 1,345 | 1324.4 | 1.02× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) [LArz0n](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/LArz0n) $6.34 9.06 coins $580 828 coins 91.39x 2026-11-06 00:31 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=guerilla-case)

[AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.43 9.18 coins $0.72 1.03 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[Tec-9 | Army Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-army-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $6.43 9.18 coins $0.04 0.06 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[Tec-9 | Army Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-army-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $6.43 9.18 coins $0.04 0.06 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[Nova | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) [Reettaonläski](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Reettaonl%C3%A4ski) $6.43 9.18 coins $4.92 7.03 coins 0.77x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-factory-new) Hidden $6.43 9.18 coins $0.46 0.66 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.43 9.18 coins $20.20 28.86 coins 3.14x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-well-worn) Hidden $6.43 9.18 coins $4.05 5.79 coins 0.63x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Negev | Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-field-tested) Hidden $6.43 9.18 coins $0.22 0.31 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Tec-9 | Army Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-army-mesh-factory-new) [Terroristi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Terroristi) $6.43 9.18 coins $0.04 0.06 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Yorick (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-yorick-field-tested) [Reettaonläski](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Reettaonl%C3%A4ski) $6.43 9.18 coins $0.27 0.39 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $6.43 | 90.93% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $6.43 | 90.92% | 22 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $6.43 | 90.93% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $6.43 | 90.88% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $6.35 | 90.96% | 22 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $6.34 | 90.95% | 22 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $6.34 | 90.88% | 22 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.34 | 90.94% | 22 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.7% rare 0.0% classified 19.4% blue 3.1% restricted 11.0% consumer 22.0% mil spec 42.8% best hit $580 (91.39x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.93 on average: an expected loss of $9.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt