--- title: "Guts case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Guts ($10.01) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 12 items with odds, observed 92.44% over 4,495 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/guts rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Guts](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/guts) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Guts A case on CSGORoll (15%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/guts?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/guts?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/guts) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/guts?window=all) Price · $10.01 · 14.3 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $9.10 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.44% · 4,495 openings, odds method Variance · 6.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 79.35% ±20.22 579 openings 7 days · 89.69% ±8.03 3,734 openings 30 days · 92.44% ±7.33 4,495 openings since tracking started · 92.44% ±7.33 4,495 openings 58.5% 79.5% 100.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/guts?window=24h) | 579 | 79.35% ±20.2 | −1.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/guts?window=7d) | 3,734 | 89.69% ±8.03 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/guts) | 4,495 | 92.44% ±7.33 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/guts?window=all) | 4,495 | 92.44% ±7.33 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,495 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $158 225 coins | 8.7% | 28 | 22.5 | 1.25× | | [FAMAS \| Styx (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $98.00 140 coins | 32.3% | 135 | 134.8 | 1.00× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $94.50 135 coins | 5.2% | 24 | 22.5 | 1.07× | | [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $75.60 108 coins | 16.6% | 85 | 89.9 | 0.95× | | [USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $51.58 73.68 coins | 11.3% | 84 | 89.9 | 0.93× | | [P250 \| Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $51.08 72.97 coins | 11.2% | 88 | 89.9 | 0.98× | | [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $21.68 30.97 coins | 11.9% | 247 | 224.8 | 1.10× | | [Sticker \| Vigilance (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vigilance-holo) | 10.0% | $1.57 2.24 coins | 1.7% | 449 | 449.5 | 1.00× | | [M249 \| System Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $0.57 0.81 coins | 0.9% | 674 | 674.3 | 1.00× | | [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 915 | 899.0 | 1.02× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 917 | 899.0 | 1.02× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 20.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 849 | 899.0 | 0.94× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=guts) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $10.01 14.3 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $10.01 14.3 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [P250 | Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.01 14.3 coins $51.08 72.97 coins 5.10x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) [Emz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Emz) $10.01 14.3 coins $75.60 108 coins 7.55x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Sticker | Vigilance (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vigilance-holo) Hidden $10.01 14.3 coins $1.57 2.24 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $10.01 14.3 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $10.01 14.3 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $10.01 14.3 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) [Jarza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jarza) $10.01 14.3 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC [USP-S | Royal Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.01 14.3 coins $21.68 30.97 coins 2.17x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $10.01 | 90.90% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $10.01 | 90.89% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $10.01 | 90.88% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $9.91 | 90.89% | 12 | | 6 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $9.93 | 90.92% | 12 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $9.93 | 90.94% | 12 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.95 | 90.88% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.0% restricted 3.0% classified 2.0% mil spec 17.0% industrial 5.0% remarkable 10.0% consumer 60.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt