--- title: "Gutted case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Gutted ($598.77) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 73.47% over 14 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gutted rendered: 2026-11-11T15:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Gutted](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gutted) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Gutted A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gutted?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gutted?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gutted) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gutted?window=all) Price · $598.77 · 855 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $544.34 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 73.47% · 14 openings, odds method Variance · 5.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 8 openings · below min 30 days · 14 openings · below min since tracking started · 14 openings · below min -0.5% 143.5% 287.5% **Small sample.** 14 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gutted?window=24h) | 4 | 64.53% ±222.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gutted?window=7d) | 8 | 79.73% ±157.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gutted) | 14 | 73.47% ±118.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/gutted?window=all) | 14 | 73.47% ±118.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new-4x-ibp-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $22.8K 32,500 coins | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $8,887 12,695 coins | 12.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $6,188 8,840 coins | 14.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 250 | $3,941 5,630 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 67 | $2,513 3,590 coins | 6.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $2,205 3,150 coins | 10.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1,436 2,052 coins | 10.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $1,299 1,856 coins | 14.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 33 | $1,081 1,544 coins | 6.0% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1,058 1,512 coins | 9.7% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 12.0% | $112 160 coins | 2.5% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $84.70 121 coins | 1.9% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.19× | | [D Squadron Officer \| NZSAS agent · distinguished](https://gambatracker.com/items/d-squadron-officer-nzsas) | 18.0% | $60.00 85.71 coins | 2.0% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.79× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $49.60 70.86 coins | 1.4% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.90× | | [Sticker \| Doppler Poison Frog (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-doppler-poison-frog-foil) | 18.5% | $34.64 49.49 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $599 855 coins $1,299 1,856 coins 2.17x 2026-11-10 23:29 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $609 870 coins $1,083 1,547 coins 1.78x 2026-11-04 12:39 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $599 855 coins $1,081 1,544 coins 1.81x 2026-11-10 07:23 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $609 870 coins $1,077 1,538 coins 1.77x 2026-11-04 12:39 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) [I'm Saltyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/I'm%20Saltyy) $599 855 coins $1,058 1,512 coins 1.77x 2026-11-10 07:23 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=gutted) [★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) Hidden $599 855 coins $49.60 70.86 coins 0.08x 2026-11-10 23:29 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $599 855 coins $112 160 coins 0.19x 2026-11-10 23:29 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) Hidden $599 855 coins $84.70 121 coins 0.14x 2026-11-10 23:29 UTC [M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $599 855 coins $1,299 1,856 coins 2.17x 2026-11-10 23:29 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) Hidden $599 855 coins $84.70 121 coins 0.14x 2026-11-10 07:23 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $599 855 coins $1,081 1,544 coins 1.81x 2026-11-10 07:23 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) Hidden $599 855 coins $49.60 70.86 coins 0.08x 2026-11-10 07:23 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) [I'm Saltyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/I'm%20Saltyy) $599 855 coins $1,058 1,512 coins 1.77x 2026-11-10 07:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $599 | 90.91% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $599 | 90.91% | 15 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $609 | 90.91% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.9% covert 62.6% distinguished 18.0% exotic 18.5% best hit $1,299 (2.17x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt