--- title: "Harakiri case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Harakiri ($17.54) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 17 items with odds, observed 93.26% over 4,253 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/harakiri rendered: 2026-11-11T16:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Harakiri](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/harakiri) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Harakiri A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/harakiri?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/harakiri?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/harakiri) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/harakiri?window=all) Price · $17.54 · 25.06 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $15.95 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.26% · 4,253 openings, odds method Variance · 6.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 79.24% ±23.11 455 openings 7 days · 92.50% ±8.84 3,179 openings 30 days · 93.26% ±7.67 4,253 openings since tracking started · 93.26% ±7.67 4,253 openings 55.5% 79.3% 103.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/harakiri?window=24h) | 455 | 79.24% ±23.1 | −1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/harakiri?window=7d) | 3,179 | 92.50% ±8.84 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/harakiri) | 4,253 | 93.26% ±7.67 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/harakiri?window=all) | 4,253 | 93.26% ±7.67 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,253 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100,000 | $4,088 5,840 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $1,400 2,000 coins | 0.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $610 872 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Sticker \| 100 Thieves (Foil) \| Boston 2018 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-100-thieves-foil-boston-2018) | 1 in 1,429 | $421 602 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new-2) | 1 in 1,250 | $412 589 coins | 2.1% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.18× | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $378 540 coins | 5.9% | 9 | 10.6 | 0.85× | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $328 468 coins | 12.3% | 26 | 25.5 | 1.02× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 114 | $177 253 coins | 9.8% | 51 | 37.4 | 1.36× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $66.84 95.48 coins | 5.8% | 61 | 58.7 | 1.04× | | [Sticker \| HellRaisers \| DreamHack 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-dreamhack-2014) | 1 in 69 | $59.18 84.54 coins | 5.4% | 51 | 61.7 | 0.83× | | [Sticker \| rain (Foil) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-foil-krakow-2017) | 1 in 21 | $36.68 52.4 coins | 10.7% | 195 | 198.6 | 0.98× | | [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $33.31 47.59 coins | 10.7% | 225 | 216.9 | 1.04× | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-obsidian-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $22.20 31.71 coins | 11.8% | 371 | 361.5 | 1.03× | | [Souvenir Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-dusk-ruins-factory-new) | 12.0% | $11.28 16.12 coins | 8.5% | 482 | 510.4 | 0.94× | | [MP9 \| Airlock (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-well-worn) | 15.0% | $6.66 9.52 coins | 6.3% | 652 | 637.9 | 1.02× | | [Sticker \| Ruby Wave (Lenticular) sticker · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ruby-wave-lenticular) | 19.0% | $3.33 4.76 coins | 4.0% | 795 | 808.1 | 0.98× | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) | 31.0% | $1.83 2.61 coins | 3.6% | 1,329 | 1318.4 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $17.56 25.09 coins $1,400 2,000 coins 79.71x 2026-11-07 03:52 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) [lancer\_0](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/lancer_0) $17.56 25.09 coins $638 912 coins 36.35x 2026-11-08 07:02 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=harakiri) [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) Hidden $17.54 25.06 coins $1.83 2.61 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC [Sticker | Ruby Wave (Lenticular) sticker · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ruby-wave-lenticular) [Paul blart Ascended](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Paul%20blart%20Ascended) $17.54 25.06 coins $3.33 4.76 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) Hidden $17.54 25.06 coins $1.83 2.61 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) Hidden $17.54 25.06 coins $1.83 2.61 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) Hidden $17.54 25.06 coins $1.83 2.61 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $17.54 25.06 coins $66.84 95.48 coins 3.81x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) [Paul blart Ascended](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Paul%20blart%20Ascended) $17.54 25.06 coins $1.83 2.61 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 16:45 UTC [Sticker | Ruby Wave (Lenticular) sticker · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ruby-wave-lenticular) Hidden $17.54 25.06 coins $3.33 4.76 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 16:45 UTC [MP9 | Airlock (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-well-worn) Hidden $17.54 25.06 coins $6.66 9.52 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 16:45 UTC [MP9 | Airlock (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-well-worn) Hidden $17.54 25.06 coins $6.66 9.52 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 16:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $17.54 | 90.90% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $17.41 | 90.92% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $17.56 | 90.92% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 4.7% covert 2.3% exotic 0.1% restricted 39.6% classified 20.3% mil spec 12.6% high 1.5% #eb4b4b 19.0% best hit $1,400 (79.71x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt