--- title: "Hardened Case case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Hardened Case ($60.00) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 8 items with odds, observed 72.60% over 135 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hardened-case rendered: 2026-11-11T18:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Hardened Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hardened-case) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Hardened Case A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hardened-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hardened-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hardened-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hardened-case?window=all) Price · $60.00 · 85.72 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $54.55 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 72.60% · 135 openings, odds method Variance · 4.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 77.07% ±37.37 114 openings 30 days · 72.60% ±34.33 135 openings since tracking started · 72.60% ±34.33 135 openings 37.5% 76.3% 115.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hardened-case?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hardened-case?window=7d) | 114 | 77.07% ±37.4 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hardened-case) | 135 | 72.60% ±34.3 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/hardened-case?window=all) | 135 | 72.60% ±34.3 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 135 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $762 1,088 coins | 7.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $605 864 coins | 5.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $470 672 coins | 8.6% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $384 549 coins | 35.2% | 5 | 6.8 | 0.74× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $337 482 coins | 18.6% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.23× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $79.10 113 coins | 7.3% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.89× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $48.94 69.91 coins | 4.5% | 3 | 6.8 | 0.44× | | [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) | 80.0% | $9.09 12.99 coins | 13.3% | 115 | 108.0 | 1.06× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $61.54 87.91 coins $629 899 coins 10.23x 2026-11-05 16:02 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=hardened-case) [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) [bmfaby](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/bmfaby) $60.00 85.72 coins $9.09 12.99 coins 0.15x 2026-11-10 04:07 UTC [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $60.00 85.72 coins $9.09 12.99 coins 0.15x 2026-11-10 04:07 UTC [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $60.00 85.72 coins $9.09 12.99 coins 0.15x 2026-11-10 04:07 UTC [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $60.00 85.72 coins $9.09 12.99 coins 0.15x 2026-11-10 04:07 UTC [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $60.00 85.72 coins $9.09 12.99 coins 0.15x 2026-11-10 04:07 UTC [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $60.00 85.72 coins $9.09 12.99 coins 0.15x 2026-11-10 04:07 UTC [★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-field-tested) [bmfaby](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/bmfaby) $60.00 85.72 coins $48.94 69.91 coins 0.82x 2026-11-10 04:06 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $60.00 85.72 coins $337 482 coins 5.62x 2026-11-10 04:06 UTC [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $60.00 85.72 coins $9.09 12.99 coins 0.15x 2026-11-10 04:06 UTC [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $60.00 85.72 coins $9.09 12.99 coins 0.15x 2026-11-10 04:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $60.00 | 90.91% | 8 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $61.24 | 90.90% | 8 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $61.54 | 90.91% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 14.5% classified 0.5% extraordinary 5.0% restricted 80.0% best hit $629 (10.23x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt